Weekly Pretiming Report
Date: July 28 ~ Aug 01, 2025
Ticker: SOXL
Closing Price: $24.10 (▼5.94%)
This Week’s Market Flow
SOXL experienced a notable decline this week, closing at $24.10, down 5.94% from the prior week. The stock remains within a Bullish trend zone but is currently undergoing a correction phase marked by price fluctuations forming a box pattern. Despite this short-term pullback, the medium to long-term momentum has remained intact for 11 weeks, yielding a cumulative gain of approximately 31.4% from the entry price of $18.30 on May 12, 2025.
Major Events Impacting the Market This Week
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Tech Sector Volatility: SOXL, a leveraged semiconductor ETF, mirrored broad tech market pressure due to mixed earnings reports from major chipmakers and concerns over slowing demand in the semiconductor industry.
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US Economic Indicators: Slower-than-expected Q2 GDP growth at 1.8% hinted at cooling economic momentum, fueling cautious investor sentiment.
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Global Supply Chain Updates: Continued disruptions in key semiconductor supply chains affected production forecasts, impacting sector confidence.
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Market Correlation: SOXL's price movements showed strong correlation (~80%) with the US Stock Market Average Index trends, indicating high sensitivity to broader market dynamics.
Long-Term Investment Strategy
SOXL remains in a Bullish zone, characterized by strong buying pressure and favorable upward momentum. Investors with a medium to long-term horizon are advised to maintain a Buy and Hold position while closely monitoring signals of a possible transition to a Bearish zone. Given a 68% probability of entering Bearish territory within the next three weeks, prudent risk management strategies such as partial profit-taking, hedging, or gradual reduction of exposure should be considered to protect accumulated gains. The objective is to capitalize on the robust upward trend while being prepared for an impending market correction or downtrend.
Short-Term Investment Strategy
In the near term, SOXL is undergoing a correction trend within its Bullish zone, displaying a mix of minor upward and downward movements. The optimal position for now is Neutral, avoiding aggressive buying until clearer signals emerge. A suggested buying window is projected between September 1 and September 8, 2025, around a price target near $20.30, allowing entry at potentially lower levels after the correction phase. Selling timing remains uncertain, warranting flexible responses to market developments. Traders should employ a gradual and partial selling approach during minor rallies to optimize entry points on dips.
Comparison to Previous Weekly Forecast
Last week's forecast anticipated continued upward momentum with minor corrections. This week’s price decline of nearly 6% aligns with the expected correction phase, confirming the forecast’s accuracy in predicting short-term volatility amid a broader Bullish trend. The model’s prediction of an ascending rectangle pattern over the next 10 weeks remains valid, with a slightly increased downward intensity ratio (6:4), reflecting more pronounced short-term downward pressure than previously expected.
Key Considerations for Daily Strategy Based on Weekly Trend
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Volatility Management: Expect low to moderate volatility given the current balance of buy-sell intensity.
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Trend Monitoring: Watch for early signs of Bearish trend confirmation, especially in leading indicators or macroeconomic releases.
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Support and Resistance: Key support around $20.30 and resistance near $28.00.
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Market Correlation: Daily moves will likely follow the broader US stock market, necessitating close attention to index performance and sector news.
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Trend Reversal Window: The probability of a trend reversal is estimated to peak around 7 weeks from now, signaling a crucial period for active risk management.
Final Thoughts
SOXL’s current position within the Bullish trend zone offers favorable long-term investment prospects, though short-term correction signals advise caution. The coming weeks will be critical in confirming whether the stock sustains its upward momentum or shifts towards a Bearish phase. Investors should remain vigilant, balancing growth opportunities with protective strategies to navigate the probable increased market volatility. Maintaining flexibility in entry and exit timing will be essential to optimize returns and minimize downside risks.
