Daily Pretiming Report
Analysis Date: August 1, 2025
Stock: RGTI (Rigetti Computing)
1. Aug 1, 2025: Daily Price Trend Analysis
On August 1, 2025, RGTI stock closed at 14.1, marking a decline of 2.62% for the day. This was in line with the broader technology sector and major U.S. equity indices, with the NASDAQ Composite falling 2.2% and major tech/AI shares facing notable sell-offs. The four-day streak in the Bearish trend zone resulted in a cumulative decline of 9.3% since entering this regime.
2. Key Events Affecting the Trend
July 2025 ISM Manufacturing PMI came in below expectations at 48.0 (contraction territory), raising concerns about manufacturing sector weakness and broader economic resilience. This marked the fifth consecutive month of decline, fueling risk-off sentiment among investors.
U.S. Jobless Claims reported a slight uptick to 218,000 compared to last week’s 217,000. While still below consensus estimates, incremental softening in the labor market contributed to near-term defensiveness.
AI & Quantum Stock Sector Rotation led to profit-taking and downward pressure as investors reallocated from overbought growth names (like RGTI) to more defensive positions, prompted further by elevated real yields and valuation sensitivity.
Macro Uncertainty & Fed Policy: Persistent ambiguity over the Federal Reserve’s next moves kept volatility high and pressured speculative stocks, particularly in tech and next-generation computing.
3. Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis
Trend Zone: RGTI remains in a Bearish trend. The strategic stance is “Sell and Observe,” prioritizing capital preservation during this downward flow. Long-term investors are advised to wait, observing for market stabilization and a shift to a Bullish zone before re-entering.
Bearish Zone Risks: Extended downward trends, weak rebounds, and the risk of further drawdown are prominent. Inverse strategies or maintaining high cash allocations are appropriate until clear signs of trend reversal emerge.
Future Opportunity: There is a 65% probability of Bullish zone entry within five days. If the trend confirms upward movement, gradually increasing equity exposure and reducing cash will be warranted to capture potential gains as sector momentum rebounds.
Performance: Over the past four days, this risk-based strategy helped avoid further losses (-9.3% as of today) following a Sell recommendation at 15.6.
4. Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis
Current Position: The Bearish zone persists, requiring an active risk reduction posture. Selling during upward movements is effective for risk hedging, while waiting through drawdowns is advisable.
Upcoming Rebound: There are signals of a potential rebound trend, with buying pressure expected to return as strong selling intensity wanes.
Timing: Suggested optimal buying window is August 4 to August 5 at a target price of 14.7.
Selling Target: Aim for a selling window between August 11 and August 12 at around 19.2, capitalizing on the anticipated upward move.
Market Correlation: RGTI’s movement correlates with the broader U.S. stock market 70% of the time, but can exhibit contrarian behavior 30% of the time. Sudden changes in market sentiment or index trends can induce volatility and alter forecast reliability.
5. 10-Day Forecast & Trend Intensity Summary
| Period | Forecast Direction | Intensity | Suggested Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2–4 | Sideways/Weak Down | Moderate | Wait & Observe |
| Aug 4–5 | Turning Upward | High | Buy (Bullish) & Hold |
| Aug 6–10 | Strong Upward Trend | High | Hold Gains |
| Aug 11–12 | Peak/Sell Window | High | Sell & Rebalance |
Price Range Projection: 13.1 ~ 18.7 (−7.0% ~ +32.1%), with a median price of 15.9 (+12.6%).
Upward Move Odds: Roughly 9:1 in favor of upward trend days versus down days over the next 10 sessions.
Turning Points: Trend inflection likely today and again ~9 days out.
Average Trend Dynamics: If the trend shifts upward, anticipate average upward intensity of 64%. If downward, expect an average intensity of −29%.
6. Final Thoughts
RGTI is navigating a complex period defined by confirmed macroeconomic headwinds, risk-off investor sentiment, and sector-specific unwinding. A disciplined approach, grounded in observable market signals and risk control, remains paramount. The probability-weighted outlook favors a rebound in the coming days, providing tactical opportunities for nimble investors. However, until a confirmed shift to a Bullish trend zone is evident, maintaining flexibility and strict risk management is essential to optimize long-term returns and limit downside exposure in a rapidly evolving environment.
