COIN Pretiming Report_Weekly
Date: Weekly of Aug 18, 2025
📊 This Week’s Market Flow
Coinbase (COIN) closed at $319.9, up +0.72% for the week. The stock remains in the Bearish trend zone, which has persisted for 2 weeks since Aug 04, 2025. During this period, COIN has recorded a 3.0% cumulative loss.
Price action suggests that while downward pressure is still dominant, there are early signals of a potential rebound trend as selling momentum begins to weaken. Market behavior is closely tied to the broader U.S. Stock Market Average Index, with a 72% correlation, meaning overall equity sentiment heavily influences COIN’s trajectory.
*Key Factors Driving COIN This Week
1. Federal Reserve Rate-Cut Signals
Coinbase’s stock gained momentum as the Federal Reserve Chair hinted at a possible interest rate cut at the Jackson Hole Symposium, sparking renewed risk appetite among investors. This positive macro signal also drove a surge in Bitcoin prices, which benefitted COIN’s performance.
2. Crypto Market Rally
A sharp rebound in Bitcoin—jumping from below $112,000 to nearly $116,500—boosted sentiment for crypto-related equities. The renewed speculative appetite in digital assets supported COIN’s weekly rally.
3. Launch of Nano XRP and SOL Futures
On August 18, Coinbase expanded its derivatives offering in the US by launching nano XRP and SOL perpetual futures. This product launch was seen as a strategic move to diversify revenue through derivatives, increase market accessibility, and attract both retail and institutional investors.
4. Regulatory Developments and Global Expansion
Growing optimism about US regulatory clarity continued to buoy COIN. Progress on the GENIUS Act and other pro-crypto bills has made the outlook for stablecoins more favorable, where Coinbase now plays a significant role. In addition, the company’s earlier regulatory approval in the EU and the launch of its Luxembourg crypto hub have strengthened its global presence and investor confidence.
5. Trading Suspension and Technical Volatility
On August 22, Coinbase suspended ERN trading due to closed migration bridges, leading to short-term trading volatility on the platform. Analysts also highlighted volatile price moves as options trading spiked throughout the week.
6. Q2 Earnings and Shifting Revenue Mix
Despite a record Q2 earnings beat earlier in the month, concerns linger about shrinking trading volumes. Coinbase is increasingly reliant on subscription and services revenue, especially from its stablecoin and derivatives businesses, as retail trading activity softens.
In summary, COIN was driven this week by central bank policy signals, a crypto market rally, strategic product launches, ongoing regulatory progress, technical trading factors, and a shift in its core revenue mix.
📈 Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis
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Trend Zone: Bearish
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Recommended Position: Sell and Observe
COIN is currently in a Bearish environment, where selling pressure typically overwhelms rebound attempts. In this zone, the probability of sustained upward returns is low, while downside risk remains high.
For long-term investors, the strategy remains defensive:
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Maintain a Sell and Observe stance, avoiding aggressive accumulation.
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Treat this phase as a waiting period, monitoring conditions until the trend shifts back into a Bullish zone, which would mark a clear Buying point.
That said, probability models suggest a 57% chance of re-entering the Bullish zone within 4 weeks. If this shift occurs, investors should prepare to increase equity exposure and adopt a more aggressive Buy strategy to capture potential upside.
⚡ Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis
Short-term momentum still reflects the Bearish zone, but a rebound trend is forming as the steep decline shows signs of slowing.
Recommended Strategy:
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Focus on risk reduction and avoid chasing upward spikes.
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Use rallies as hedging or partial exit opportunities rather than initiating full positions.
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Maintain a neutral stance on new buying until clearer confirmation of Bullish entry emerges.
Key tactical levels:
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Buy Window: Aug 25, 2025, at around $316.7
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Sell Window: Sep 15–22, 2025, targeting $470.0
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Position: Neutral — adopt selective entries only if conditions improve.
🔮 10-Week Forecast & Trend Outlook and Insights
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Expected Trend Shape: Upward-biased movement after initial rebound
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Direction Ratio: 4 (downward) : 6 (upward) → More weight on upside
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Intensity Bias: Upward momentum moderately stronger than downward
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Upper–Lower Range (10 Weeks): $287.9 – $450.1
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Potential % Change: -10.0% ~ +40.7%
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Median Expected Price: $369.0 (+15.4%)
Turning Points Forecast:
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Possible reversals around 1 week, 6 weeks, and 9 weeks ahead.
Zone Intensity Analysis:
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Past 30 weeks average: Bearish (-5%)
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Current zone level: Bearish (-42%) → strong downside pressure
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Next 10 weeks projection: Bullish (+37%) → potential recovery trend
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Expected strength:
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Upward: 53% (moderate-to-strong)
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Downward: -44% (moderate)
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📅 Key Considerations for Daily Strategy Based on Weekly Trend
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Be cautious on short-term rebounds → Treat them as tactical opportunities for trimming exposure rather than chasing.
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Prepare for a possible Bullish entry in 4 weeks → build watchlists and entry plans in advance.
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High correlation with U.S. Index (72%) → Market-wide moves will strongly affect COIN’s path.
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Volatility Outlook → Relatively stable due to balanced Buy-Sell intensity, but potential sharp reversals remain possible around predicted turning points.
📝 Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts
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For Long-Term Investors: Maintain a Sell and Observe approach. Avoid aggressive entry until a confirmed Bullish trend emerges. If the projected Bullish reversal occurs in 4 weeks, begin shifting toward equity accumulation.
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For Short-Term Traders: Stay neutral to defensive. Sell into strength and use upward moves as exit points. A tactical Buy may be considered near $316–320 with strict stop-loss management, aiming for $450 as an upper target.
Bottom Line: COIN is still in a Bearish phase but approaching a possible rebound. While downside risks persist, the forecast suggests a growing probability of Bullish entry within the next month. Investors should stay cautious but prepare to pivot quickly if the trend confirms a shift upward.
