NASDAQ Pretiming Report_Daily
Date: August 7, 2025
Index Closing Price: 21,242.7 (+0.35%)
📊 1. Today's Market Flow
The NASDAQ edged up by 0.35%, closing at 21,242.7 and continuing its upward grind within a Bearish trend zone. The market is now displaying clear rebound characteristics, with moderate buying intensity emerging amidst what was previously dominant selling pressure.
This marks a notable transition phase, where the broader downtrend is pausing, and the index is exhibiting signs of forming a sideways box pattern—an indication of market indecision and stabilization. Importantly, the probability of entering a Bullish trend zone in the next 3 days has risen to 68%, signaling growing momentum behind this rebound.
🧠2. Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis
Despite the recent gains, the NASDAQ remains in the Bearish zone, and the recommended investment posture remains "Sell and Observe." This approach continues to protect against downside risk and avoid premature long exposure.
However, investors should take note of the following developments:
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The cumulative return since the Bearish signal (Jul 29 → Aug 7) is now +0.7%, a modest gain within a high-risk zone.
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A potential transition to a Bullish zone is approaching, with a 68% likelihood in the next 3 days.
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A trend reversal could justify a shift from capital preservation to tactical accumulation, particularly for medium-to-long-term investors seeking upside participation.
Selling Price (Jul 29): 21,098.3
Current Price (Aug 07): 21,242.7
Difference: +144.4 points
Investors should begin preparing entry strategies in anticipation of a Bullish confirmation, while still exercising patience until confirmation occurs.
⚡ 3. Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis
The short-term market structure has evolved into a rebound trend within a Bearish environment, characterized by a box pattern—with small dips and moderate upward swings.
Current momentum suggests a neutral stance is most appropriate:
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Buying flow is strengthening, especially at market open, but upward movement is limited.
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Volatility remains high, with rapid shifts in Buy-Sell intensity.
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Near-term trend favors upward movement slightly more than downward, but both directions are expected to have moderate strength.
Recommended Sell Window: August 8–11
Target Sell Price: 21,633.3
Recommended Buy Window: August 18–19
Target Buy Price: 21,181.7
Traders are advised to stay on the sidelines or maintain light exposure until a clear breakout occurs. The strategy should be to sell into strength, and buy on dips only after confirming trend support.
📉 4. 10-Day Forecast & Trend Outlook Summary and Insights
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Trend Pattern: Sideways Box Pattern
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Direction Probability Ratio (Down:Up): 4 : 6
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Trend Strength: Moderate in both directions
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Forecasted Price Range:
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Lower Bound: 21,200.4 (-0.2%)
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Upper Bound: 21,572.6 (+1.6%)
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Median: 21,386.5 (+0.7%)
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Trend Zone Expectations:
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Current: Bearish -65%
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Next 10-Day Average: Bullish +5%
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Past 30-Day Average: Bullish +10%
Trend Intensity Forecast:
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If Upward: +42% avg
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If Downward: -35% avg
Expected Daily Movements:
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If Rising: Average gain +1.0%, range +1.4% ~ -0.4%
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If Falling: Average loss -1.0%, range +0.6% ~ -1.5%
Trend Reversal Alert: Expected around 6 days from now, potentially signaling entry into Bullish territory.
🔄 5. Comparison to Previous Daily Forecast (Aug 5, 2025)
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The NASDAQ has rebounded +326 points from the Aug 5 low of 20,916.6 to 21,242.7.
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The Bearish trend level has softened from -96% to -65%, suggesting fading downward pressure.
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The likelihood of a Bullish transition has risen significantly, from 54% to 68%.
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The strategy has shifted from Buy (Bullish) and Hold to a more Neutral position, awaiting stronger signals before committing to either side.
🧠6. Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts
🔹 For Long-Term Investors:
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Stay defensive, but monitor the increasing signs of a trend reversal.
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If the Bullish entry is confirmed (within 3 days), consider gradual equity re-entry and rotation out of cash/defensive positions.
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Use this week to prepare watchlists and allocation models.
🔸 For Short-Term Traders:
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Adopt a Neutral stance while price consolidates.
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If price reaches 21,633.3, it may offer a short-term selling opportunity.
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Plan re-entry on weakness near 21,181.7 after Aug 18.
Summary:
While the broader trend remains technically Bearish, the market is moving toward a pivotal point. The sideways structure and rising probability of a Bullish transition make this a strategic moment to observe, plan, and prepare. Both short- and long-term investors should watch for a breakout confirmation before acting decisively.
