NASADAQ: This uptick appears to be part of a nascent rebound trend forming within the larger bearish framework.

NASDAQ Pretiming Report_Daily

Date: August 4, 2025
Index Closing Price: 21,053.6 (+1.95%)

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📊 1. Today's Market Flow

The NASDAQ Composite rebounded sharply today, rising 1.95% to close at 21,053.6. Despite the broader market remaining in a Bearish trend zone, today's movement marked a short-term reversal attempt, with buying momentum strengthening within an otherwise downtrending environment.

This uptick appears to be part of a nascent rebound trend forming within the larger bearish framework. Key technical indicators show that selling pressure has started to ease, giving way to a more volatile but upward-inclined fluctuation pattern.

*Key Events Affecting the Trend

On August 4, 2025, the NASDAQ and broader U.S. stock markets rebounded, registering significant gains. This upward movement was primarily driven by several key factors:

• Strong Corporate Earnings: Investor sentiment improved following robust earnings reports, notably with technology-heavy NASDAQ stocks leading the rally. For example, Palantir shares rose significantly after the company reported revenue surpassing $1 billion for the first time.

• Recovery From Previous Losses: The stock market had experienced a downturn the previous Friday due to worries over new tariffs and a disappointing jobs report that spurred concerns about economic stability. On August 4, the S&P 500 rose approximately 1.5%, the NASDAQ nearly 2%, and the Dow rebounded by about 585 points, recovering much of Friday’s losses.

• Broad-Based Rally: More than 80% of S&P 500 stocks advanced, with the gains not limited to a single sector. The recovery was seen across technology, industrials, and small-cap stocks.

• Market Sentiment: While recent labor market data raised some recession concerns, investors responded positively to signs that companies were weathering economic headwinds better than expected. The optimism outweighed residual caution from macroeconomic challenges.

In summary, the NASDAQ and other major U.S. indexes rose on August 4, 2025, fueled by encouraging corporate earnings, a broad equity rebound after a previously weak session, and renewed investor optimism in the face of mixed macroeconomic signals

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🧭 2. Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

The long-term outlook remains firmly situated in a Bearish trend zone. This zone is characterized by:

• Persistent downward pressure

• Weak or temporary upward rebounds

• Low expected returns and elevated downside risk

Currently, investors should maintain a "Sell and Observe" stance. This strategy has been in place for 4 days since the bearish entry and has helped avoid losses, with the cumulative return during this bearish period standing at -0.2%.

Given the 0% probability of transitioning to a Bullish zone within the next 10 days, there are no technical indications justifying a strategy shift. Investors should remain defensive and await a confirmed breakout into the Bullish zone before considering long-term re-entry.

Selling Price (Jul 29): 21,098.3
Current Price (Aug 04): 21,053.6
Difference: -44.7 points

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⚡ 3. Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

In the short term, while the trend is still bearish, a rebound trend is emerging—evidenced by:

• Diminishing selling momentum

• Increased buy-side activity within the zone

• Buy-Sell intensity flipping in favor of buyers

As such, short-term strategy should remain bearish-biased, but tactically flexible. The suggested positioning is "Sell (Bearish)", with today or tomorrow representing prime selling windows.

Recommended Sell Date: August 5
Target Sell Price: 21,246.2

The forecast also identifies a buying opportunity emerging between August 14–15, as prices are expected to dip and present better value levels.

Target Buy Date: August 14–15
Target Buy Price: 20,730.5

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📉 4. 10-Day Forecast & Trend Outlook Summary and Insights

• Trend Pattern: Descending Rectangle

• Direction Probability Ratio (Down:Up): 2 : 8

• Directional Strength: Upward trend moderate / Downward trend strong

• Price Range Forecast (Next 10 Days):

  • Lower Bound: 20,770.3 (-1.3%)

  • Upper Bound: 21,201.5 (+0.7%)

  • Median: 20,985.9 (-0.3%)

Volatility remains high, driven by abrupt changes in buy/sell intensity. Caution is warranted around the predicted turning points—expected today and in 8 days, as these may define trend shifts.

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📅 5. Comparison to Previous Daily Forecast

Compared to the last outlook on July 29, 2025:

• The NASDAQ has seen minimal net change (-44.7 points), reflecting a flat but volatile range-bound structure.

• The trend zone has remained Bearish, yet the current trend level% has improved slightly (from near -100% to -93%), suggesting early signs of easing pressure.

• The market is aligning closely with the prior forecast’s Sell and Observe recommendation, continuing to protect capital from drawdowns.

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🧠 6. Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts

For Long-Term Investors:

• Stay on the sidelines. No signs point to a transition toward a Bullish zone.

• Wait for confirmation of a trend reversal before entering long positions.

• Inverse ETFs or hedging strategies may still be considered to manage downside exposure.

For Short-Term Traders:

• Sell aggressively into current strength today or tomorrow.

• Watch for buying conditions around August 14–15 at ~20,730.

• Avoid overexposure during rebound fluctuations; the bearish trend still dominates overall.

Summary:

The market may experience a short-term rebound, but long-term momentum remains negative. Use the coming days to rebalance risk, lock in profits from any upside, and prepare for re-entry near mid-August at more favorable prices.