NASDAQ Pretiming Report_Daily

Date: August 5, 2025
Index Closing Price: 20,916.6 (-0.65%)

📊 1. Today's Market Flow

The NASDAQ closed down 0.65% today at 20,916.6, continuing its retreat from recent highs and confirming the prevailing Bearish trend zone. The market is currently in a clear downtrend phase, with strong selling pressure driving prices lower, only briefly interrupted by shallow rebounds.

Today’s decline reinforces that selling strength remains intact, although momentum indicators suggest a potential inflection point may form in the coming sessions. The probability of a transition to a Bullish trend has increased to 54% within the next 7 days, indicating a tactical shift may soon be required.

🧭 2. Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

The long-term trend remains firmly Bearish, where the recommended investment posture is “Sell and Observe.” This stance helps investors avoid exposure to market declines and positions them to re-enter at more attractive levels once a Bullish trend is confirmed.

Over the past 5 trading days, this risk-averse strategy has resulted in a -0.9% cumulative loss since the bearish signal on July 29, compared to a broader index drop of similar magnitude, demonstrating effective capital preservation through strategic withdrawal.

Selling Price (Jul 29): 21,098.3
Current Price (Aug 05): 20,916.6
Difference: -181.7 points

However, with the probability of entering a Bullish zone rising to 54%, investors should prepare for a potential re-entry strategy. A proactive stance—such as reducing cash holdings and gradually increasing equity exposure—could be warranted if bullish confirmation emerges by mid-August.

⚡ 3. Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

Despite being in a Bearish zone, short-term dynamics are shifting. The market currently exhibits a classic downtrend: strong price drops with brief recoveries. But technical analysis signals a change is near.

The next 10-day trend is expected to form an ascending rectangle pattern, typically a bullish consolidation setup. The directional movement ratio is forecasted at 4:6 (Down:Up), but notably, the upward intensity is stronger than the downward pressure.

Recommended Buy Date: August 6–7
Target Buy Price: 20,699.4

Recommended Sell Date: August 13–14
Target Sell Price: 21,325.7

The appropriate short-term stance is “Buy (Bullish) and Hold.” Positioning for upside over the next 7–10 days appears favorable, particularly if the market responds positively to any macroeconomic data or earnings surprises.

📉 4. 10-Day Forecast & Trend Outlook Summary and Insights

Expected Trend Pattern: Ascending Rectangle
Price Range Forecast (Next 10 Days):
- Lower Bound: 20,729.4 (-0.9%)
- Upper Bound: 21,259.1 (+1.6%)
- Median Price: 20,994.2 (+0.4%)
Turning Points Expected: In 3 days and again in 8 days
Volatility Warning: Forecasts remain subject to change due to rapid Buy-Sell intensity shifts

Trend Zone Analysis:

Last 30-Day Average: Bullish 15%
Current: Bearish -96%
Expected Next 10 Days: Bearish -37%

Trend Intensity Forecast:

Upward Movement Average Intensity: +55%
Downward Movement Average Intensity: -33%

Average Price Change Stats:

If Rising: +0.9% avg, range +1.4% ~ -0.6%
If Falling: -1.1% avg, range +0.5% ~ -1.7%

🔄 5. Comparison to Previous Daily Forecast

Compared to August 4, 2025:

The NASDAQ has continued its slide, now down 181.7 points from the Jul 29 selling signal.
While the trend remains Bearish, market internals are strengthening, and technical structure has shifted from a descending to an ascending rectangle, indicating improved short-term sentiment.
Probability of Bullish transition rose from 0% to 54%, marking a notable shift in expectations.
Short-term strategy has moved from Sell(Bearish) to Buy(Bullish) and Hold, reflecting this evolution.

🧠 6. Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts

🔹 For Long-Term Investors:

Continue to observe the market while holding cash or inverse positions.
Prepare for tactical rotation into long exposure if bullish confirmation occurs in the next 7 days.
Watch for a shift to Bullish zone as a signal for medium-to-long term reentry.

🔸 For Short-Term Traders:

Initiate buying between Aug 6–7, targeting 20,699.4 as a buy zone.
Plan to sell around Aug 13–14 at 21,325.7, capitalizing on a potential 2–3% rally.
Stay nimble. While trends are turning, volatility remains elevated.

Summary: The NASDAQ remains technically Bearish, but momentum is shifting bullish in the short term. Use early August weakness to enter positions ahead of a potential trend reversal. Aggressive accumulation may be rewarded, particularly if upcoming economic or earnings data supports the rebound.

[ SPR ] Stock Pretiming Report

Tuesday, August 5, 2025