Monday, September 1, 2025

PLTR Pretiming Report_Daily: PLTR is in the late stage of its Bearish cycle with a strong chance of turning Bullish.

PLTR Pretiming Report_Daily

Date: August 29, 2025
Closing Price: $156.7 (-0.89%)

📊 Today's Market Flow

Palantir (PLTR) closed at $156.7, down -0.89%, continuing its consolidation phase within a Bearish trend zone.

Over the last 10 trading days, PLTR has fallen from $177.2 (Aug 15) to $156.7 (Aug 29), a -11.5% decline. This confirms sustained bearish pressure. However, technical indicators now point to an elevated probability (90%) of a Bullish transition within the next 1 day.

This suggests the stock may be near an inflection point, where selling momentum weakens and accumulation opportunities emerge.

*Key Factors Driving PLTR and the U.S. Stock Market Today

Broad Tech Selloff and Valuation Concerns

Technology stocks—including Palantir (PLTR), Nvidia, and other AI-related firms—saw notable declines as investors rotated out of high-growth, high-valuation sectors. U.S. financial media attributed much of the drop to mounting concerns over overstretched valuations and slowing earnings growth in tech, especially as AI enthusiasm moderated.

PLTR-Specific Pressures

Palantir's stock was hit hardest by:

Short-seller pressure: Citron Research announced a short position, calling PLTR’s valuation “absurd,” which intensified retail investor hesitation.
Earnings/guidance disappointment: PLTR’s Q2 earnings missed revenue and EPS estimates, with soft near-term guidance and elevated expenses rattling sentiment.
Broader tech correction: PLTR participated in the broader AI/tech selloff, reinforcing downside momentum.

Market-Level Drivers

Across the U.S. market:

Portfolio adjustments: Investors rebalanced toward defensive, low-volatility, and dividend-paying sectors as month-end approached ahead of the Labor Day weekend.
Macroeconomic data: July’s PCE inflation data met expectations but did little to alleviate concerns about rate policy and slowing job growth.
Lower trading volume and caution: The lead-up to a long weekend and historical September market weakness encouraged a more defensive stance and profit-taking, especially after a strong multi-month rally.

Analyst Perspective

Taken together, PLTR’s descent is primarily due to overextended valuations, recent disappointing fundamentals, and the psychological impact of prominent short-selling activity. For the broader U.S. market, the pullback reflects normal profit-taking after strong summer gains, concerns about slowing AI momentum, and economic signals that warrant caution among investors.

📈 Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

Current Zone: Bearish
Strategy: Sell and Observe

In a Bearish environment, prices generally trend downward with only short-lived rebounds. Historically, this zone yields low expected returns with higher downside risks.

Risk Management: Selling early in the Bearish zone has avoided a cumulative -11.5% drawdown in the past 10 days, validating a disciplined exit approach.
Forward View: With a 90% probability of entering a Bullish zone within 1 day, investors should prepare to pivot strategies:
1. If Bearish persists: Continue defensive positioning and limit equity exposure.
2. If Bullish transition begins: Consider gradual re-entry and accumulation, as upward flows often follow sharp bearish declines.

Bottom Line (Long-Term): Maintain a Sell and Observe stance but prepare capital allocation plans for a potential Bullish shift very soon.

⚡ Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

Current Position: Bearish Zone (Rebound Trend in progress)
Suggested Position: Sell (Bearish)

In the short term, PLTR is exhibiting box-pattern fluctuations — temporary rebounds with underlying selling pressure. These are often “breathing moments” where buying appears but fails to sustain.

Next Selling Window: Sep 02 – Sep 03 around $157.6
Next Buying Window: Sep 04 – Sep 05 around $148.4

Given the 8:2 downward-to-upward ratio in forecasted price action, near-term risk favors continued downside with moderate volatility.

Bottom Line (Short-Term): Use rebounds as opportunities to sell into strength. Limit buying until clearer Bullish confirmation appears.

🔮 10-Day Forecast & Trend Outlook

Projected Range (10 days): $144.0 ~ $156.8
Median Price: $150.4 (≈ -4.0% from current)
Expected Trend Zone: Bearish (-32%)
Trend Intensity:
- Upward strength: ~41% (moderate)
- Downward strength: ~58% (stronger)
Turning Points Expected:
- 2 days from now (potential short-term reversal)
- 6 days from now (secondary trend inflection)
Correlation to US Market:
- Moves with S&P 500 ~75% probability
- Moves against market ~25% probability

Interpretation: PLTR remains closely tied to broader US equity trends. A market-wide rally could accelerate its Bullish transition, while continued weakness in the index would reinforce the Bearish drift.

📝 Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts

For Long-Term Investors: Stay in observation mode until Bullish confirmation. A strategic re-entry could be timed if PLTR enters a Bullish zone within the next few sessions, as current probabilities suggest.
For Short-Term Traders: Use Sep 02–03 rebound as a tactical selling opportunity. Avoid aggressive buying until after Sep 04–05, when a lower entry price (~$148.4) becomes favorable.
General Guidance: PLTR is approaching a pivotal shift. The next 3–5 days will likely determine whether the Bearish cycle ends or extends. Be prepared for increased volatility and plan entries/exits accordingly.

✅ Final Word: PLTR is in the late stage of its Bearish cycle with a strong chance of turning Bullish. Patience and disciplined execution over the next week will be key to capturing the next upside move.

Sunday, August 31, 2025

SOXL Pretiming Report_Weekly: #SOXL remains in a strong Bullish cycle, currently consolidating. Leverage-driven volatility presents risks but also outsized return opportunities for disciplined investors.

SOXL Pretiming Report_Weekly

Week of Aug 25, 2025

📌 This Week’s Market Flow

SOXL closed the week at $26.0, down -5.14%. Despite the pullback, the stock remains firmly within a Bullish zone and has delivered a +42.0% cumulative return since its entry into the Bullish trend on May 12, 2025 (entry price: $18.3).

The probability of entering a Bearish zone in the next 10 weeks is essentially 0%, underscoring the resilience of the long-term bullish framework.

SOXL has a high correlation (81%) with the broader U.S. stock market averages, meaning its movements closely mirror major index trends. As such, broader market conditions will play a crucial role in shaping SOXL’s short- to medium-term path.

*Key Factors Driving SOXL and the U.S. Stock Market This Week

Semiconductor Sector Sentiment

SOXL (Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares) experienced a notable price decline, dropping nearly 9% on August 29, 2025, as technical indicators—including momentum and MACD—turned negative and the fund moved below its 50-day moving average.
Investor focus shifted from booming AI optimism to caution, particularly after Nvidia’s quarterly report, which, while reaffirming robust AI infrastructure spending, missed sky-high expectations and contributed to further downward pressure in semiconductor-related equities.

Tech Earnings and AI Rally Moderation

The U.S. stock market overall saw a mixture of subdued trading and sector rotation as several major tech stocks, including Nvidia, Dell, and Marvell, posted disappointing earnings—resulting in corrections across the Nasdaq and dragging tech shares lower.
Despite August closing with gains for major indices, the fading momentum in the artificial intelligence sector led analysts to express concerns over the sustainability of recent rallies.

Economic Data and Fed Policy Expectations

Wall Street paid close attention to economic reports, especially PCE inflation data, ahead of the Labor Day weekend, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in September.
Defensive rotation emerged as investors adjusted portfolios at month-end, amplifying volatility in high-growth and momentum stocks and bolstering low-volatility dividend strategies.

Analyst Perspective

From an analyst’s standpoint, this week’s price action in SOXL and the U.S. stock market underscores the market’s sensitivity to incremental shifts in AI sector expectations, semiconductor growth outlooks, and macroeconomic signals. While the medium-term consensus remains positive for semiconductor revenue supported by AI and memory recovery, short-term momentum has slowed, and technical indicators suggest a cautious approach amid rapid sectoral rotation and heightened data dependence.

📊 Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

Trend Zone: Bullish
Recommended Position: Buy and Hold

SOXL continues to operate in a Bullish zone where the dominant market forces favor upward momentum, punctuated by mild corrections.

Uptrend phases bring sharp upward swings, driven by sustained buying pressure.
Correction phases serve as pauses or consolidations within the broader upward move.

For long-term investors, the strategy is clear:

Maintain Buy and Hold positions.
View corrections as natural pauses, not signals of trend reversal.
A Bearish transition would mark an exit point, but the likelihood remains negligible in the near term.

This long-term stance is particularly effective given SOXL’s role as a leveraged semiconductor ETF, where extended Bullish periods can yield amplified returns.

⚡ Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

Currently, SOXL is experiencing a correction trend within its Bullish structure. Price action is oscillating in a box-pattern, with subdued buying intensity and temporary selling pressure dominating the short-term outlook.

Active Strategy:
- Hold through the correction, as the long-term trend remains bullish.
- Consider fresh buying opportunities around Sep 08–15, with $25.9 as an attractive re-entry level.
- Plan for profit-taking in early October (Oct 06–13), where SOXL could reach $39.7.
Market Dynamics:
- Correction phases in Bullish zones typically indicate consolidation, not breakdowns.
- Traders should avoid panic-selling and instead look to accumulate on weakness.

🔮 10-Week Forecast & Trend Outlook and Insights

Expected Price Range: $25.4 – $37.9
Median Forecast Price: $31.6 (+21.4% from current).
Trend Balance: 50% downward vs. 50% upward moves expected, but upward intensity is stronger.
Upward Intensity: ~79% (vs. -41% for downward moves).
Turning Points: Moderate probability of reversals in ~4 weeks and ~8 weeks.
Volatility: Elevated due to Buy-Sell intensity shifts, especially given SOXL’s leverage.

The broader projection suggests SOXL is consolidating before resuming a strong upward move, with potential to test the $37.9–39.7 range over the next two months.

🗓️ Key Considerations for Daily Strategy Based on Weekly Trend

Use pullbacks as accumulation points, especially near $25–26.
Avoid shorting—the macro Bullish trend is intact.
Align trading with the U.S. stock market index trends, as SOXL mirrors broader market movements 81% of the time.
Anticipate elevated volatility: leverage amplifies both gains and corrections.

🎯 Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts

Long-Term Investors: Maintain Buy-and-Hold positions. The Bullish trend is intact, and long-term upside remains compelling.
Short-Term Traders: Prepare for tactical entries in early September and target profit-taking in October near $39.7.
Overall Outlook: SOXL remains in a strong Bullish cycle, currently consolidating. Leverage-driven volatility presents risks but also outsized return opportunities for disciplined investors.

EOSE Pretiming Report_Weekly: EOSE is positioned as a high-potential Bullish opportunity, with momentum favoring continued gains into the fall.

EOSE Pretiming Report_Weekly

Week of Aug 25, 2025

📌 This Week’s Market Flow

EOSE ended the week at $6.9, up +9.18% from last week.
Since entering the Bullish zone on Jul 14, 2025 (entry price $5.9), the stock has returned +17.5% over 6 weeks.

Momentum remains strong, supported by steady buying interest and moderate correlation with small-cap sentiment. The probability of entering a Bearish zone within the next 10 weeks is effectively 0%, underscoring the strength of the current trend.

Correlation analysis shows EOSE moves in line with the Russell 2000 Index about 70% of the time, while diverging about 30% of the time. This indicates a moderate link to broader U.S. small-cap performance, but with flexibility to decouple under certain conditions.

📊 Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

Trend Zone: Bullish
Recommended Position: Buy and Hold

EOSE continues to build momentum inside a Bullish zone, where:

Uptrend phases are driven by strong, sustainable buying flows.
Correction phases remain shallow and short-lived.

For long-term investors, the strategic posture remains unchanged:

Hold existing positions and benefit from compounding gains.
Treat corrections as natural pauses rather than trend reversals.
A shift into a Bearish zone would signal exit, but the probability of this occurring is currently negligible.

This aligns with a long-term wealth-building approach, where consistent holding during Bullish conditions offers superior risk-adjusted returns compared to short-term trading noise.

⚡ Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

Short-term market dynamics highlight a strong uptrend, characterized by brief declines followed by sharper upward movements. The current Buy-Sell intensity is stable and supports further gains.

Active Trading Strategy:
- Add exposure on Sep 01 or shortly after, with $6.7 identified as an attractive entry level.
- Plan for partial profit-taking in mid-September (Sep 15–22) around the $9.8 target price.
Projected Formation: An ascending rectangle pattern is expected, with upward price moves outpacing downward corrections at a 6:4 ratio.

This setup favors opportunistic buying near support and gradual profit-taking near resistance levels, without abandoning core positions.

🔮 10-Week Forecast & Trend Outlook and Insights

Expected Price Range: $6.1 – $9.3
Median Forecast Price: $7.7 (+11.4% from current)
Probability of Bullish Continuation: High (49% expected average Bullish zone level).
Upward Intensity: ~84% (vs. -40% for downward moves).
Volatility: Low to moderate, as Buy-Sell intensity is well-balanced.
Turning Point Risk: Moderate chance of trend reversal in ~6 weeks.

Overall, the bias remains upward, with clear potential for a breakout toward $9.8 in the medium term.

🗓️ Key Considerations for Daily Strategy Based on Weekly Trend

Early Next Week (Sep 01): Favor entries near $6.7.
Mid-September: Monitor momentum—plan partial exits near $9.8.
Daily Corrections: Treat small pullbacks as buying opportunities, given the broader Bullish backdrop.
Market Context: Keep an eye on the Russell 2000 Index, as its moves influence EOSE about 70% of the time.

🎯 Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts

Long-Term Investors: Stay the course with Buy-and-Hold. The Bullish structure remains intact, offering high reward with limited downside risk.
Short-Term Traders: Execute tactical buys near $6.7 and consider profit-taking around $9.8 in September.
Overall View: EOSE is positioned as a high-potential Bullish opportunity, with momentum favoring continued gains into the fall.

HSAI Pretiming Report_Weekly: HSAI remains a high-conviction Bullish play, offering both trend-following potential and volatility-driven trading opportunities.

HSAI Pretiming Report_Weekly

Week of Aug 25, 2025

📌 This Week’s Market Flow

HSAI closed the week at $25.8, marking a +10.79% gain.
The stock has now delivered a cumulative return of +45.8% over the past 15 weeks since entering the Bullish zone (entry price: $17.7 on May 12, 2025).

During this period, price action has consistently aligned with a Bullish market structure, where the dominant trend has been upward, interrupted only by mild corrections. Importantly, the probability of HSAI entering a Bearish zone within the next 10 weeks remains close to 0%, suggesting strong resilience and investor confidence.

Correlation analysis indicates that HSAI moves in line with the Russell 2000 Index 64% of the time, while diverging from broader U.S. market trends about 36% of the time. This implies a moderately tied relationship to small-cap market sentiment, but also enough independence to chart its own path during certain periods.

📊 Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

Trend Zone: Bullish
Recommended Position: Buy and Hold

The long-term outlook remains constructive, with HSAI firmly situated in a Bullish zone. Within this framework, the stock alternates between Uptrends (robust upward momentum) and Correction Trends (temporary pullbacks).

For long-term investors, the strategic approach is clear:

Continue holding positions, as the uptrend probability dominates.
Corrections within this Bullish zone should be seen as consolidation phases rather than warning signs.
A Bearish reversal would signal an exit point, but the probability of such a shift in the near term is negligible.

Thus, for investors focused on multi-month to yearly horizons, staying invested offers both high potential returns and relatively low downside risk.

⚡ Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

Short-term price action shows HSAI is transitioning from a mild correction into the early stages of a renewed uptrend. The Buy-Sell intensity has shifted decisively from selling pressure to strengthening buying momentum, creating favorable conditions for tactical traders.

Active Strategy:
- Add exposure on dips during minor corrections.
- Use partial selling when sharp rallies occur (around key resistance levels such as $33.0), creating opportunities to buy back at lower levels.
Projected Pattern: An ascending rectangle formation is expected over the next 10 weeks, with upward moves outweighing downward ones at a 6:4 ratio.
Key Short-Term Price Levels:
- Target Sell Price: $33.0 (estimated between Sep 08–15).
- Expected Range (10 weeks): $22.7 – $33.9.
- Median Price Estimate: $28.3 (+9.7% from current).

This setup favors aggressive buying during short-term weakness, with tactical selling around resistance levels.

🔮 10-Week Forecast & Trend Outlook and Insights

Probability of Bullish Continuation: Very high (Bullish 53% expected average zone level).
Upward Momentum Strength: ~71% potential (vs. -40% for downward moves).
Volatility: Elevated, as sudden Buy-Sell intensity shifts could trigger sharp swings.
Turning Points: High likelihood of minor trend reversals this week, in ~4 weeks, and ~9 weeks.

Expected trend path:

Bias remains upward, with bullish intensity stronger than bearish pullbacks.
Price may test $33.0–33.9 resistance in the coming weeks.
Downside is limited to ~$22.7 under moderate selling pressure.

🗓️ Key Considerations for Daily Strategy Based on Weekly Trend

For the upcoming week, daily strategies should align with the broader bullish weekly structure:

Buy on pullbacks into the $24–25 range.
Scale out partial positions as price approaches $32–33.
Avoid overreacting to small daily declines—treat them as part of the larger bullish cycle.
Monitor Russell 2000 movements as a guide, but note that HSAI may diverge at times.

🎯 Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts

Long-Term Investors: Maintain Buy-and-Hold positions. The Bullish zone is intact, and the probability of entering a Bearish phase in the next 10 weeks is effectively zero.
Short-Term Traders: Lean into bullish momentum. Favor tactical buys on dips, partial profit-taking near resistance, and re-entry opportunities on corrections.
Overall Outlook: HSAI remains a high-conviction Bullish play, offering both trend-following potential and volatility-driven trading opportunities.