Understanding the Pretiming Forecasting System: A Purely Data-Driven Market Prediction Approach

Understanding the Pretiming Forecasting System: A Purely Data-Driven Market Prediction Approach

At Pretiming, our forecasting system is designed to predict market movements based purely on investor behavior—specifically, the actual results of buying and selling transactions. Rather than relying on news, rumors, or external economic events, we focus entirely on how investors have acted, not why they acted.

The system analyzes changes in stock prices—percentage increases or decreases—that result from real investor trades, and from that, it calculates the strength of buying and selling flows to forecast future trends. This makes our approach unique and objective, as it avoids the uncertainty and subjectivity involved in interpreting news or market sentiment.

Why We Built This System

Investors make buy and sell decisions for countless reasons:

• Personal financial circumstances (available capital, cash needs, investment appetite)

• Company-specific factors (earnings reports, outlooks, bond or stock issuance)

• Broader macro factors (government policies, economic indicators, wars, interest rates)

With so many overlapping and conflicting variables, it’s nearly impossible to predict how these factors will translate into actual market action. For example, a positive news event might not push the price up if the stock is already at a high level, and a negative event might not trigger a drop if the market has already priced it in. These responses depend not only on logic, but on crowd psychology—a dynamic, ever-shifting force.

In reality, stock prices move in a continuous feedback loop:

• An event affects investor sentiment

• That sentiment leads to buying or selling behavior

• Price changes occur

• The new price changes sentiment again

• And the cycle continues…

This kind of loop—where market behavior constantly affects and is affected by itself—makes it nearly impossible to predict future movements using cause-based forecasting. In other words, trying to forecast price direction based on “what happened” in the news or macro environment becomes inconsistent and unreliable.

That’s why we created the Pretiming System:

We don’t try to guess what the market should do based on external causes. Instead, we wait for real transactions to occur and analyze them after the fact. This lets us measure the actual strength of buying and selling flows—quantitatively and systematically—and use that data to provide consistent, visual, and concrete forecasts of where the market is likely to go next.

What Happens When Major Events Hit the Market?

Of course, there are times when major external events do affect the market. In such cases, Pretiming does not immediately respond to the event itself—we wait for the market to react, and then update our forecast based on the new data that results from actual trades.

If the market responds strongly, our forecast will reflect that change—sometimes dramatically. If the impact is minor, only short-term projections may be adjusted. In all cases, Pretiming provides updated forecasts based on real market action, not speculation or assumption.

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In Summary:

• Pretiming is a data-based forecasting system focused purely on investor behavior.

• It does not rely on news or speculation.

• It analyzes actual price movements and volume after they occur.

• It measures the strength of buyer/seller flows to predict future trends.

• Forecasts are systematic, objective, and visual, offering more clarity than traditional “event-based” predictions.

• When the market is impacted by big events, Pretiming waits for price reactions before adjusting its outlook—ensuring more reliable analysis.

If you're looking for a consistent, data-driven way to understand where the market might be heading—without the noise of subjective interpretation—Pretiming offers a smarter way forward.

* 'Uptrend' and 'Adjustment trend' in the Bullish zone *

* 'Downtrend' and 'Rebounding trend' in the Bearish zone *

RGTI is navigating a complex period defined by confirmed macroeconomic headwinds, risk-off investor sentiment, and sector-specific unwinding.

Daily Pretiming Report
Analysis Date: August 1, 2025 

Stock: RGTI (Rigetti Computing)

1. Aug 1, 2025: Daily Price Trend Analysis

On August 1, 2025, RGTI stock closed at 14.1, marking a decline of 2.62% for the day. This was in line with the broader technology sector and major U.S. equity indices, with the NASDAQ Composite falling 2.2% and major tech/AI shares facing notable sell-offs. The four-day streak in the Bearish trend zone resulted in a cumulative decline of 9.3% since entering this regime.

2. Key Events Affecting the Trend

• July 2025 ISM Manufacturing PMI came in below expectations at 48.0 (contraction territory), raising concerns about manufacturing sector weakness and broader economic resilience. This marked the fifth consecutive month of decline, fueling risk-off sentiment among investors.

• U.S. Jobless Claims reported a slight uptick to 218,000 compared to last week’s 217,000. While still below consensus estimates, incremental softening in the labor market contributed to near-term defensiveness.

• AI & Quantum Stock Sector Rotation led to profit-taking and downward pressure as investors reallocated from overbought growth names (like RGTI) to more defensive positions, prompted further by elevated real yields and valuation sensitivity.

• Macro Uncertainty & Fed Policy: Persistent ambiguity over the Federal Reserve’s next moves kept volatility high and pressured speculative stocks, particularly in tech and next-generation computing.

3. Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

• Trend Zone: RGTI remains in a Bearish trend. The strategic stance is “Sell and Observe,” prioritizing capital preservation during this downward flow. Long-term investors are advised to wait, observing for market stabilization and a shift to a Bullish zone before re-entering.

• Bearish Zone Risks: Extended downward trends, weak rebounds, and the risk of further drawdown are prominent. Inverse strategies or maintaining high cash allocations are appropriate until clear signs of trend reversal emerge.

• Future Opportunity: There is a 65% probability of Bullish zone entry within five days. If the trend confirms upward movement, gradually increasing equity exposure and reducing cash will be warranted to capture potential gains as sector momentum rebounds.

• Performance: Over the past four days, this risk-based strategy helped avoid further losses (-9.3% as of today) following a Sell recommendation at 15.6.

4. Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

• Current Position: The Bearish zone persists, requiring an active risk reduction posture. Selling during upward movements is effective for risk hedging, while waiting through drawdowns is advisable.

• Upcoming Rebound: There are signals of a potential rebound trend, with buying pressure expected to return as strong selling intensity wanes.

• Timing: Suggested optimal buying window is August 4 to August 5 at a target price of 14.7.

• Selling Target: Aim for a selling window between August 11 and August 12 at around 19.2, capitalizing on the anticipated upward move.

• Market Correlation: RGTI’s movement correlates with the broader U.S. stock market 70% of the time, but can exhibit contrarian behavior 30% of the time. Sudden changes in market sentiment or index trends can induce volatility and alter forecast reliability.

5. 10-Day Forecast & Trend Intensity Summary

Period	Forecast Direction	Intensity	Suggested Position
Aug 2–4	Sideways/Weak Down	Moderate	Wait & Observe
Aug 4–5	Turning Upward	High	Buy (Bullish) & Hold
Aug 6–10	Strong Upward Trend	High	Hold Gains
Aug 11–12	Peak/Sell Window	High	Sell & Rebalance

• Price Range Projection: 13.1 ~ 18.7 (−7.0% ~ +32.1%), with a median price of 15.9 (+12.6%).

• Upward Move Odds: Roughly 9:1 in favor of upward trend days versus down days over the next 10 sessions.

• Turning Points: Trend inflection likely today and again ~9 days out.

• Average Trend Dynamics: If the trend shifts upward, anticipate average upward intensity of 64%. If downward, expect an average intensity of −29%.

6. Final Thoughts

RGTI is navigating a complex period defined by confirmed macroeconomic headwinds, risk-off investor sentiment, and sector-specific unwinding. A disciplined approach, grounded in observable market signals and risk control, remains paramount. The probability-weighted outlook favors a rebound in the coming days, providing tactical opportunities for nimble investors. However, until a confirmed shift to a Bullish trend zone is evident, maintaining flexibility and strict risk management is essential to optimize long-term returns and limit downside exposure in a rapidly evolving environment.