[SPR] TQQQ Pretiming Report_Daily

Date: Nov 21, 2025

1. Comprehensive Daily Analysis of TQQQ’s Price Action and Market Drivers

TQQQ closed at $47.5 (+2.22%), showing a short-term upward reaction following a prolonged and deep Bearish trend. Although the daily gain appears strong, the ETF remains firmly positioned in a broad downtrend, driven primarily by strong selling pressure and a lack of sustained buying momentum.

Despite today’s upward move, the broader context is still dominated by:

Heavy downside momentum
Weak and temporary rebounds
Elevated volatility and downside risk characteristics typical of a Bearish environment

TQQQ has now remained in the Bearish zone for 13 consecutive days, with a cumulative decline of –14.5%, reinforcing the effectiveness of the ongoing Sell and Observe position in avoiding meaningful losses.

Correlation with the US Stock Market Average Index remains extremely high at 94%, meaning TQQQ’s direction is essentially dictated by broader market sentiment. As a result, shifts in macro momentum or index trend will heavily influence short-term movement and forecast variability.

2. Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

The long-term trend structure remains Bearish, maintaining the recommended strategic stance of Sell and Observe.

Within a Bearish zone:

The Downtrend phase produces persistent, powerful downside movement with only brief relief rallies.
The Rebound Trend phase involves weak, temporary upward fluctuations and volatile downward retracements.
Expected returns remain low while the risk of further decline remains high.

This environment supports a defensive posture, allowing investors to:

Avoid exposure to continued downside
Potentially seek opportunities in inverse products if appropriate
Prepare for re-entry only once TQQQ transitions into a confirmed Bullish zone

With no structural improvement or trend-zone shift expected, the long-term strategy remains unchanged.

➡️ Analyst Insight:
Long-term investors should continue prioritizing capital preservation. Although temporary rebounds may occur, the overwhelming trend remains downward, and a buy signal will only emerge after a clear Bullish zone entry.

3. Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

Short-term price action indicates that TQQQ is currently in a downtrend characterized by strong downward momentum, punctuated by brief and weak corrective rises. The Buy–Sell intensity remains aligned with a continuation of the current trend structure.

Short-term strategic positioning:

Primary Position: Neutral
Avoid aggressive buying due to the dominant selling pressure
Utilize upward movements for tactical selling where applicable
Maintain conservative positioning, especially during volatile rebounds

Short-term outlook:

The next buying opportunity is expected in 3 days
- Buy Window: Nov 25–26
- Target Buy Price: $48.6
The next selling opportunity is projected in 7 days
- Sell Window: Dec 2–3
- Target Sell Price: $50.3

Expected trend direction ratio (next 10 days):

Downtrend : Uptrend = 4 : 6
→ More upward cycles expected
However, downward intensity remains stronger than upward intensity, indicating that declines may be sharper than rebounds.

➡️ Analyst Insight:
Short-term traders may exploit upcoming buy/sell windows, but should remain cautious. Even with slightly more upward cycles projected, stronger downward intensity means risk remains elevated, and positions should be tightly managed.

4. 10-Day Forecast & Trend Outlook and Insights

Predicted 10-day range:

Lower bound: $46.5 (–2.0%)
Upper bound:** $50.1 (+5.4%)
Median expected price: $48.3 (+1.7%)

Trend-zone dynamics:

Last 30 days: Bearish at –23%
Current level: Bearish at –148% (deep Bearish territory)
Next 10 days expected: Bearish at –89%

Trend intensity expectations:

Upward intensity: +36% (moderate)
Downward intensity: –100% (maximum level)

Trend turning points may occur:

In 2 days
In 8 days

However, neither indicates a transition into a Bullish zone.

Forecast volatility is somewhat lower than prior periods due to stable Buy-Sell intensity, but remains sensitive to index movements due to the 94% correlation with the US market.

➡️ Interpretation:
Investors should expect a slightly more constructive short-term pattern (ascending rectangle), but meaningful upside is limited and sharp declines remain a real possibility. This supports cautious tactical trading rather than accumulation.

5. Comparison to Previous Daily Forecast

Category	Previous Outlook	Current Outlook	Change
Trend Zone	Bearish (moderate)	Bearish (deep)	Stronger Bearish positioning
Short-Term Setup	Rebound trend	Downtrend	Shift toward stronger downside momentum
Buy Signal	Uncertain	Buy in 3 days	Clearer buy window identified
Sell Signal	In 3 days (prior)	In 7 days	Sell window moved further out
10-Day Outlook	Sideways with downside bias	Ascending rectangle pattern	Short-term structure slightly improved
Bullish Entry Probability	0%	0%	No change

Overall, while short-term behavior shows slightly more upward probability, the deeper Bearish zone indicates that long-term weakness remains intact.

6. Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts

TQQQ remains deeply Bearish, preserving a defensive posture.
Short-term direction shows more upward cycles but with stronger downward intensity, maintaining a cautious environment.
Clear tactical trade windows exist for both buying (Nov 25–26) and selling (Dec 2–3).
High correlation with the US market means macro factors will dominate price action.
Long-term investors should continue to wait for a Bullish zone transition before committing new capital.

7. Investment Strategy Summary

Strategy Type	Current Position	Notes
Long-Term	Sell and Observe	Deep Bearish trend; avoid accumulation
Short-Term	Neutral	Downtrend with limited upward corrections
Next Buy Window	Nov 25–26	Target: $48.6
Next Sell Window	Dec 2–3	Target: $50.3
10-Day Range	$46.5 ~ $50.1	Median: $48.3
Trend Zone	Bearish (–148% → –89%)	Weak recovery but still firmly bearish
Reversal Probability	2 & 8 days	No Bullish transition expected

[ SPR ] Stock Pretiming Report

Sunday, November 23, 2025