Saturday, August 9, 2025

NVDA Pretiming Report_Daily: While the broader trend remains bullish, near-term caution is warranted due to emerging correction patterns and heightened downside intensity in the forecast.

 

NVDA Pretiming Report_Daily

Date: August 8, 2025
Ticker: NVDA [NVDL/NVDQ]
Closing Price: $182.70 (+1.07%)


1. Today’s Market Flow

NVIDIA closed higher at $182.70, up 1.07% from the prior session, extending its position in the Bullish trend zone for the fourth consecutive day since entry on August 4, 2025. Intraday price action reflected continued buyer dominance, though momentum showed signs of moderating toward the close. The current price is $2.70 above the initial bullish entry point of $180.00, representing a +1.5% cumulative return within this zone.

While bullish momentum remains intact, model projections indicate a 38% probability of transitioning to a Bearish zone within the next 5 trading days, warranting tactical risk management consideration.

* Key Factors Driving NVDA and the U.S. Stock Market Today

NVDA’s Outperformance

  • Record S&P 500 Weight: NVIDIA has surpassed Apple as the largest-weighted stock in the S&P 500 as of August 2025, driven by accelerated demand for AI chip technology and rapid expansion in data center computing. This structural change marks a shift in index concentration toward high-growth tech and AI sectors.

  • Strong Earnings Expectations: Anticipation is high ahead of NVIDIA's upcoming earnings (scheduled for August 27), with consensus estimates projecting a sharp rise in both revenue and earnings per share compared to last year. Recent performance shows a 10% monthly stock gain, outpacing market peers and sector averages. Investors are positioning for further growth given NVIDIA's strategic dominance in AI and semiconductor innovation.

  • Stock Performance: On August 8, NVDA closed at $182.74, up +1.09% for the day, beating gains in the broader indices.

  • Tech Leadership and Index Records: Apple’s rally and gains among other major technology stocks powered the Nasdaq to a new record closing high, while the S&P 500 finished near its own record. The Nasdaq is up roughly 11% year-to-date, highlighting the strength of the tech sector as a market driver.

  • Rate Cut Optimism: Growing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts provided key support for equities. Recent soft economic data and anticipatory policy statements amplified hopes for upcoming rate reductions, encouraging investor risk appetite and propelling tech shares.

  • Tariff News: President Trump's recent actions regarding proposed tariffs on semiconductor imports influenced market sentiment significantly. Assurance that tariffs would not immediately impact U.S.-based manufacturers eased fears, allowing a recovery in both chip stocks like NVIDIA and index futures.

  • Sector Rotation and Weekly Gains: Utilities and consumer staples outperformed cyclicals, while financials and healthcare lagged. All major indices posted gains for the week, with the Nasdaq up 3.9% and the Dow rising 1.3%.

  • Earnings Season Momentum: The latest round of corporate results, including strong guidance from leading firms, added buoyancy. Estimated Q2 earnings growth for S&P 500 companies reached 13.2%, exceeding forecasts and supporting stock price resilience.


2. Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

  • Trend Zone: Bullish

  • Investment Stance: Buy and Hold

  • Rationale: The Bullish zone is characterized by sustained upward flows with mild corrective phases. Current market structure supports ongoing accumulation for investors with multi-month horizons.

  • Macro View: Elevated buying pressure and limited downside risk contribute to an attractive risk-reward setup. Investors positioned since August 4 should continue to hold, with a strategic plan to shift defensive if momentum weakens and the Bearish zone probability increases further.

  • Risk Trigger: Bearish zone entry — would shift long-term strategy from Buy and Hold to Reduce/Exit Positions.


3. Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

  • Current Tactical Zone: Bullish, approaching Correction Trend phase

  • Short-Term Stance: Near-term Sell (Bearish) bias emerging

  • Rationale: Price momentum is showing early signs of deceleration, indicating an imminent shift into a sideways-to-downward box range pattern over the next 10 days. Forecast model projects an 8:2 ratio in favor of downward movements, with stronger downside intensity relative to upside potential.

  • Trade Plan:

    • Sell Window: August 12–13, 2025

      • Target Sell Price: $186.10

    • Buyback Window: August 15–18, 2025

      • Target Buy Price: $178.70

  • Market Correlation: NVDA’s price direction aligns with the U.S. Stock Market Average Index with 83% probability, suggesting index volatility will be a key driver of short-term performance.


4. 10-Day Forecast & Trend Outlook Summary and Insights

  • Price Range Forecast: $179.80 – $185.50

  • Expected Change: -1.6% to +1.5%

  • Median Price: $182.70 (current close)

  • Trend Probability:

    • Current: Bullish 31%

    • 10-Day Forward: Bearish -6% (avg)

  • Intensity Forecast:

    • Upside: +39% (Max +100%)

    • Downside: -65% (Min -100%)

  • Turning Points Expected: ~2 days and ~9 days from now

  • Volatility: Low, due to balanced buy-sell flow, but downside moves expected to be sharper than upside moves in the near term.


5. Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts

  • For Long-Term Investors: Maintain Buy and Hold positions while the Bullish zone remains intact. Be prepared to reduce equity exposure if Bearish zone probability rises beyond current 38% or price action breaks below the $179.80 lower bound.

  • For Short-Term Traders: Consider taking profits in the August 12–13 window and re-entering near the projected $178.70 buy zone. Given the high correlation to the U.S. market, monitor macro index trends closely.

  • Overall Bias: While the broader trend remains bullish, near-term caution is warranted due to emerging correction patterns and heightened downside intensity in the forecast.

Friday, August 8, 2025

IONQ Pretiming Report_Daily: IONQ is at a pivotal juncture—currently bearish but on the cusp of a potential bullish transition.

 

IONQ Pretiming Report_Daily

Date: August 8, 2025


Today's Market Flow

On August 8, 2025, IONQ closed at $41.9, marking a 3.36% gain from the previous close. The price movement demonstrated a short-term rebound within the broader bearish trend. The stock experienced moderate upward momentum amid fluctuating trading volumes, reflecting tentative investor confidence. This rebound is consistent with the ‘Rebound Trend’ phase seen within a bearish zone, characterized by temporary recoveries following prior selling pressure.

*Key Factors Driving IONQ and the U.S. Stock Market Today

  • IONQ’s Strong Revenue Yet Larger Losses: IonQ reported Q2 2025 revenue of $20.7M—exceeding expectations and its own guidance by roughly 15%—alongside a remarkable year-over-year growth of nearly 82%. Still, the company’s net loss widened to $177.5M in the quarter, largely due to increased R&D and operating expenses (year-over-year operating costs up more than 200%). This duality—rapid commercial traction but mounting expenses—sparked volatility and a slight dip in IONQ’s stock following earnings.

  • Aggressive Expansion and Strategic Moves: IonQ continues to pursue high-profile acquisitions (including Oxford Ionics for advanced quantum technology and Lightsynq for photonic qubit scaling) and international partnerships. These are designed to push scalable quantum computing and networking—efforts viewed as bold but currently not translating into immediate profit. Strategic hires, such as top industry talent and board changes, reinforce the company’s ambition to lead the quantum space.

  • Capital Position and Institutional Confidence: The Q2 report emphasized IonQ’s strong cash reserves, boosted by a $1B equity raise, which brings total pro-forma liquidity to about $1.6B as of July 2025. A recent insider purchase of $2M in shares signals some board-level confidence, even as questions remain on long-term funding amid rapidly rising expenses.

  • Sector Sentiment and Quantum Momentum: IONQ’s stock has tracked sharply with developments in the quantum computing sector, jumping on breakthrough applications (notably medical devices) and big-ticket institutional deals (such as a $22M quantum network agreement with EPB). Nevertheless, concerns about scalability, network revenues, and CEO share sales have generated price swings amid investor scrutiny.

  • Broader U.S. Market Dynamics: The broader tech sector fueled gains on major indices today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new highs, aided by bullish Apple news and anticipated Fed rate cuts. At the same time, investors are nervously monitoring new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, especially on semiconductors and chip imports, which add uncertainty for hardware and quantum stocks—even as U.S.-based players are exempted from the harshest levies. Low volatility, strong company earnings, and record-breaking Apple investments have helped sustain optimism, but ongoing tariff tensions and seasonal August caution moderate risk appetite.


Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

Currently, IONQ remains entrenched in a Bearish trend zone, with a recommendation to Sell and Observe. This zone has persisted for 21 days, with the stock declining approximately 8.9% from the last key sell price of $45.9 on July 10, 2025.

The bearish phase is marked by dominant selling pressure with intermittent rebounds. Investors should be cautious, as the expected return profile is low and downside risk remains elevated. However, the analysis indicates a growing probability (81% chance) of a transition into a Bullish zone within 2 days, signaling potential for a strategic shift toward accumulation.

Long-term investors should:

  • Monitor for confirmed bullish signals before initiating new positions.

  • Consider risk management techniques such as hedging or reduced exposure during the current downtrend.

  • Prepare to increase exposure as the bullish transition becomes evident, leveraging early momentum gains.


Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

In the near term, IONQ is in a bearish zone but currently undergoing a rebound trend with box-pattern price fluctuations. Buying pressure is strengthening, indicating a potential entry point.

Recommendations for short-term traders:

  • Adopt an active risk management approach, favoring timely sells during upward moves to hedge against potential reversals.

  • The optimal buy window is forecasted around August 11, 2025, near a price level of $41.5.

  • The best selling window is expected between August 12 and August 13, 2025, targeting a price near $48.0.

Price volatility remains moderate, influenced by correlations to the broader US Stock Market Index with a 75% alignment probability. However, the stock may occasionally decouple with a 25% chance, requiring vigilance for changing market dynamics.


10-Day Forecast & Trend Outlook Summary and Insights

  • Price range forecast: $41.0 (down 2.0%) to $47.1 (up 12.5%)

  • Median expected price: $44.1 (+5.3%)

  • Trend analysis predicts a shift from the current bearish zone (-49%) to a bullish trend zone (35%) over the next 10 days.

  • Expected upward trend intensity averages 63%, with potential downward corrections averaging -45%.

  • Probability of a trend reversal around 5 days from now.

  • Forecast volatility is heightened due to sudden shifts in buy-sell intensity, requiring flexible trading tactics.

The forecast suggests an equal probability of upward and downward movements (5:5 ratio) but with stronger upward intensity, favoring a cautiously optimistic outlook for the coming days.


Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts

For long-term investors, the recommendation remains to hold off on new investments until the bullish transition is confirmed, minimizing downside risk and preserving capital. Monitoring key trend indicators closely is essential for timely re-entry.

For short-term traders, there is a tactical opportunity to buy near $41.5 on August 11 and sell between August 12–13 near $48.0, capitalizing on the imminent rebound phase. Active risk management and responsiveness to market shifts will be critical given the volatility and moderate market correlation.

In summary, IONQ is at a pivotal juncture—currently bearish but on the cusp of a potential bullish transition. Investors who remain disciplined in timing and strategy stand to benefit from the expected upward momentum while minimizing exposure to downside risks.

Thursday, August 7, 2025

IONQ Pretiming Report_Daily: IONQ’s medium-term risk remains tied to broader market direction, but near-term setups offer tactical upside potential.


IONQ Pretiming Report_Daily

Date: August 7, 2025
Ticker: IONQ
Closing Price: $40.50 (-1.79%)


Today's Market Flow

IONQ closed at $40.50, down 1.79%, reflecting persistent bearish sentiment despite recent rebound attempts.
At market open, buying pressure was briefly evident, but momentum quickly shifted toward stronger selling flows.
The intraday pattern showed a box-pattern fluctuation — alternating small declines and upward moves — yet the dominant force remained on the sell side.
Given the moderate correlation (74%) with the U.S. stock market average index, today’s price weakness mirrored broader market softness but also highlighted IONQ’s own sector-specific pressures.

* Key Events Affecting the Trend

IONQ Stock Movement

  • IonQ (IONQ) stock has declined 1.8% today, continuing a short-term downward trend (off about 13% this month), despite strong performance over the previous year. The fluctuations follow the company’s recent quarterly results, which drew mixed reactions from analysts. Some highlighted the company's robust revenue guidance and equity raise, while others remain cautious, reflected in recent analyst downgrades and target price adjustments. Market volatility is also heightened by large share transactions, such as board members buying $2 million in stock and CEO share sales, indicating shifting confidence levels within the company.

US Stock Market Influences

  • Tariffs and Trade Policy: The most significant macro event was the implementation of President Trump’s new, sweeping tariffs effective August 7. These raised the average U.S. import tariff to its highest in a century (approaching 20%), affecting global supply chains and driving elevated concern over inflation and company earnings outlooks. Sectors exposed to global trade, notably industrials and consumer goods, suffered as companies like Toyota and Caterpillar warned of substantial profit impacts due to tariffs. Market participants remain on edge, watching further developments around ongoing U.S.-China tariff negotiations.

  • Technology Sector Exception: Tech stocks largely bucked the trend. Apple's strong gains (up over 3%) were driven by its announcement of a $100b U.S. investment and relief that new tariffs would largely exempt major semiconductor players committed to domestic manufacturing. This fueled a rally in the Nasdaq, which notched another record close, even as the Dow and S&P 500 slipped.

  • Interest Rate Expectations: The increased tariffs and a string of weak labor market data (jobless claims rose to a four-week high of 226,000 and continuing claims hit a near four-year record) heightened market hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Currently, the probability stands above 93%, sharply up from a week ago. This prospect helped support equities, particularly rate-sensitive sectors, despite the negative headlines about trade.

  • Earnings Reports: The market is also reacting to the latest batch of Q2 earnings. While over 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting have beaten expectations, sector performance remains mixed. In tech, announcements from companies like Airbnb, DoorDash, and Advanced Micro Devices triggered individual stock volatility. Investors are closely watching these results for insight into trends like artificial intelligence and consumer spending resilience.

Summary

  • IonQ’s stock is reflecting both company-specific developments and the broader volatility of the U.S. market created by tariff shocks, earnings season dynamics, and shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy. Investors remain focused on ongoing trade negotiations, interest rate prospects, and sector-specific news to gauge future direction.


Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

The stock remains firmly in a Bearish trend zone, now persisting for 20 consecutive days.
Historically, this zone carries low return potential and elevated downside risk, with current cumulative losses in this phase totaling -11.8% — a decline effectively avoided by adhering to the "Sell and Observe" approach.

In a Bearish environment:

  • Downtrend phase: sustained declines with brief, weak rebounds.

  • Rebound phase: short-lived upward moves amid continued volatility.

Current probability modeling suggests a 65% likelihood of entering a Bullish zone within the next 4 days.
Strategic implication:

  • Maintain reduced equity exposure and high cash allocation until the trend shift is confirmed.

  • Upon confirmation of Bullish entry, transition to an accumulation strategy, increasing long exposure to capture potential upside momentum.


Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

Despite the prevailing Bearish classification, IONQ is currently in a rebound sub-trend.
The short-term outlook favors Buy and Hold positioning, but timing remains critical:

  • Optimal Buy Window: August 11–12 at or near $41.20.

  • Optimal Sell Window: August 15–18 at or near $46.00.

Price projections for the next 10 days indicate a 2:8 down-to-up ratio, with higher upward intensity (+73%) and moderate downward pressure (-36%).
Short-term traders should:

  • Remain patient until the buy window opens.

  • Use upward swings as tactical profit-taking opportunities.

  • Monitor market index movements closely due to the high correlation factor.


10-Day Forecast & Trend Outlook Summary

  • Trend Reversal Probability: ~8 days from report date.

  • Price Range Expectation: $39.70 – $45.50

  • Median Price Target: $42.60 (+5.1%)

  • Volatility Risk: Elevated, due to rapid shifts in buy-sell intensity.

Trend Zone Forecast:

  • Past 30 days: Bearish (-37%)

  • Current: Bearish (-79%)

  • Next 10 days (expected): Bullish (+19%)

Average Move if Rising: +5.9% (range +8.2% to -2.8%)
Average Move if Falling: -2.7% (range +3.2% to -4.8%)


Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts

For Long-Term Investors:

  • Maintain the Sell and Observe stance until Bullish confirmation.

  • Prepare a watchlist of target accumulation levels to act swiftly on a trend shift.

For Short-Term Traders:

  • Use the Aug 11–12 buy window strategically for short-term upside plays.

  • Lock in profits in the Aug 15–18 sell window if price approaches the $46 target.

  • Stay agile — high volatility may shift timing by 1–2 days.

Overall:
IONQ’s medium-term risk remains tied to broader market direction, but near-term setups offer tactical upside potential. The next four trading sessions will be pivotal in determining whether the anticipated Bullish breakout materializes.

NASDAQ Pretiming Report_Daily: While the broader trend remains technically Bearish, the market is moving toward a pivotal point.


NASDAQ Pretiming Report_Daily

Date: August 7, 2025
Index Closing Price: 21,242.7 (+0.35%)


📊 1. Today's Market Flow

The NASDAQ edged up by 0.35%, closing at 21,242.7 and continuing its upward grind within a Bearish trend zone. The market is now displaying clear rebound characteristics, with moderate buying intensity emerging amidst what was previously dominant selling pressure.

This marks a notable transition phase, where the broader downtrend is pausing, and the index is exhibiting signs of forming a sideways box pattern—an indication of market indecision and stabilization. Importantly, the probability of entering a Bullish trend zone in the next 3 days has risen to 68%, signaling growing momentum behind this rebound.


🧭 2. Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

Despite the recent gains, the NASDAQ remains in the Bearish zone, and the recommended investment posture remains "Sell and Observe." This approach continues to protect against downside risk and avoid premature long exposure.

However, investors should take note of the following developments:

  • The cumulative return since the Bearish signal (Jul 29 → Aug 7) is now +0.7%, a modest gain within a high-risk zone.

  • A potential transition to a Bullish zone is approaching, with a 68% likelihood in the next 3 days.

  • A trend reversal could justify a shift from capital preservation to tactical accumulation, particularly for medium-to-long-term investors seeking upside participation.

Selling Price (Jul 29): 21,098.3
Current Price (Aug 07): 21,242.7
Difference: +144.4 points

Investors should begin preparing entry strategies in anticipation of a Bullish confirmation, while still exercising patience until confirmation occurs.


3. Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

The short-term market structure has evolved into a rebound trend within a Bearish environment, characterized by a box pattern—with small dips and moderate upward swings.

Current momentum suggests a neutral stance is most appropriate:

  • Buying flow is strengthening, especially at market open, but upward movement is limited.

  • Volatility remains high, with rapid shifts in Buy-Sell intensity.

  • Near-term trend favors upward movement slightly more than downward, but both directions are expected to have moderate strength.

Recommended Sell Window: August 8–11
Target Sell Price: 21,633.3

Recommended Buy Window: August 18–19
Target Buy Price: 21,181.7

Traders are advised to stay on the sidelines or maintain light exposure until a clear breakout occurs. The strategy should be to sell into strength, and buy on dips only after confirming trend support.


📉 4. 10-Day Forecast & Trend Outlook Summary and Insights

  • Trend Pattern: Sideways Box Pattern

  • Direction Probability Ratio (Down:Up): 4 : 6

  • Trend Strength: Moderate in both directions

  • Forecasted Price Range:

    • Lower Bound: 21,200.4 (-0.2%)

    • Upper Bound: 21,572.6 (+1.6%)

    • Median: 21,386.5 (+0.7%)

Trend Zone Expectations:

  • Current: Bearish -65%

  • Next 10-Day Average: Bullish +5%

  • Past 30-Day Average: Bullish +10%

Trend Intensity Forecast:

  • If Upward: +42% avg

  • If Downward: -35% avg

Expected Daily Movements:

  • If Rising: Average gain +1.0%, range +1.4% ~ -0.4%

  • If Falling: Average loss -1.0%, range +0.6% ~ -1.5%

Trend Reversal Alert: Expected around 6 days from now, potentially signaling entry into Bullish territory.


🔄 5. Comparison to Previous Daily Forecast (Aug 5, 2025)

  • The NASDAQ has rebounded +326 points from the Aug 5 low of 20,916.6 to 21,242.7.

  • The Bearish trend level has softened from -96% to -65%, suggesting fading downward pressure.

  • The likelihood of a Bullish transition has risen significantly, from 54% to 68%.

  • The strategy has shifted from Buy (Bullish) and Hold to a more Neutral position, awaiting stronger signals before committing to either side.


🧠 6. Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts

🔹 For Long-Term Investors:

  • Stay defensive, but monitor the increasing signs of a trend reversal.

  • If the Bullish entry is confirmed (within 3 days), consider gradual equity re-entry and rotation out of cash/defensive positions.

  • Use this week to prepare watchlists and allocation models.

🔸 For Short-Term Traders:

  • Adopt a Neutral stance while price consolidates.

  • If price reaches 21,633.3, it may offer a short-term selling opportunity.

  • Plan re-entry on weakness near 21,181.7 after Aug 18.

Summary:

While the broader trend remains technically Bearish, the market is moving toward a pivotal point. The sideways structure and rising probability of a Bullish transition make this a strategic moment to observe, plan, and prepare. Both short- and long-term investors should watch for a breakout confirmation before acting decisively.

Tuesday, August 5, 2025

NASDAQ Pretiming Report_Daily: The long-term trend remains firmly Bearish, where the recommended investment posture is “Sell and Observe.”


NASDAQ Pretiming Report_Daily

Date: August 5, 2025
Index Closing Price: 20,916.6 (-0.65%)


📊 1. Today's Market Flow

The NASDAQ closed down 0.65% today at 20,916.6, continuing its retreat from recent highs and confirming the prevailing Bearish trend zone. The market is currently in a clear downtrend phase, with strong selling pressure driving prices lower, only briefly interrupted by shallow rebounds.

Today’s decline reinforces that selling strength remains intact, although momentum indicators suggest a potential inflection point may form in the coming sessions. The probability of a transition to a Bullish trend has increased to 54% within the next 7 days, indicating a tactical shift may soon be required.


🧭 2. Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

The long-term trend remains firmly Bearish, where the recommended investment posture is “Sell and Observe.” This stance helps investors avoid exposure to market declines and positions them to re-enter at more attractive levels once a Bullish trend is confirmed.

Over the past 5 trading days, this risk-averse strategy has resulted in a -0.9% cumulative loss since the bearish signal on July 29, compared to a broader index drop of similar magnitude, demonstrating effective capital preservation through strategic withdrawal.

Selling Price (Jul 29): 21,098.3
Current Price (Aug 05): 20,916.6
Difference: -181.7 points

However, with the probability of entering a Bullish zone rising to 54%, investors should prepare for a potential re-entry strategy. A proactive stance—such as reducing cash holdings and gradually increasing equity exposure—could be warranted if bullish confirmation emerges by mid-August.


3. Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

Despite being in a Bearish zone, short-term dynamics are shifting. The market currently exhibits a classic downtrend: strong price drops with brief recoveries. But technical analysis signals a change is near.

The next 10-day trend is expected to form an ascending rectangle pattern, typically a bullish consolidation setup. The directional movement ratio is forecasted at 4:6 (Down:Up), but notably, the upward intensity is stronger than the downward pressure.

Recommended Buy Date: August 6–7
Target Buy Price: 20,699.4

Recommended Sell Date: August 13–14
Target Sell Price: 21,325.7

The appropriate short-term stance is “Buy (Bullish) and Hold.” Positioning for upside over the next 7–10 days appears favorable, particularly if the market responds positively to any macroeconomic data or earnings surprises.


📉 4. 10-Day Forecast & Trend Outlook Summary and Insights

  • Expected Trend Pattern: Ascending Rectangle

  • Price Range Forecast (Next 10 Days):

    • Lower Bound: 20,729.4 (-0.9%)

    • Upper Bound: 21,259.1 (+1.6%)

    • Median Price: 20,994.2 (+0.4%)

  • Turning Points Expected: In 3 days and again in 8 days

  • Volatility Warning: Forecasts remain subject to change due to rapid Buy-Sell intensity shifts

Trend Zone Analysis:

  • Last 30-Day Average: Bullish 15%

  • Current: Bearish -96%

  • Expected Next 10 Days: Bearish -37%

Trend Intensity Forecast:

  • Upward Movement Average Intensity: +55%

  • Downward Movement Average Intensity: -33%

Average Price Change Stats:

  • If Rising: +0.9% avg, range +1.4% ~ -0.6%

  • If Falling: -1.1% avg, range +0.5% ~ -1.7%


🔄 5. Comparison to Previous Daily Forecast

Compared to August 4, 2025:

  • The NASDAQ has continued its slide, now down 181.7 points from the Jul 29 selling signal.

  • While the trend remains Bearish, market internals are strengthening, and technical structure has shifted from a descending to an ascending rectangle, indicating improved short-term sentiment.

  • Probability of Bullish transition rose from 0% to 54%, marking a notable shift in expectations.

  • Short-term strategy has moved from Sell(Bearish) to Buy(Bullish) and Hold, reflecting this evolution.


🧠 6. Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts

🔹 For Long-Term Investors:

  • Continue to observe the market while holding cash or inverse positions.

  • Prepare for tactical rotation into long exposure if bullish confirmation occurs in the next 7 days.

  • Watch for a shift to Bullish zone as a signal for medium-to-long term reentry.

🔸 For Short-Term Traders:

  • Initiate buying between Aug 6–7, targeting 20,699.4 as a buy zone.

  • Plan to sell around Aug 13–14 at 21,325.7, capitalizing on a potential 2–3% rally.

  • Stay nimble. While trends are turning, volatility remains elevated.


Summary: The NASDAQ remains technically Bearish, but momentum is shifting bullish in the short term. Use early August weakness to enter positions ahead of a potential trend reversal. Aggressive accumulation may be rewarded, particularly if upcoming economic or earnings data supports the rebound.