COIN Pretiming Report_Daily: COIN is nearing a potential rebound phase after weeks of heavy selling. However, until the Bullish zone is confirmed, both long- and short-term investors should remain cautious, prioritize capital preservation, and prepare to act quickly if the upward breakout solidifies.

COIN Pretiming Report_Daily

Date: August 21, 2025
Closing Price: $300.3 (-1.35%)

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1. Today’s Market Flow

Coinbase (COIN) closed at $300.3, down -1.35% from the previous session.
The stock remains in a Bearish trend zone, reflecting ongoing selling pressure and cautious investor sentiment.

Over the past 21 days, COIN has consistently remained in this Bearish zone, accumulating a decline of -24.5% since July 23, 2025. This performance highlights the importance of risk management and defensive positioning.

Selling activity continues to outweigh buying pressure, although signs of a potential rebound trend are emerging as downward momentum begins to slow.

*Key Factors Driving COIN Today

• Sluggish Trading Activity and Revenue Decline
  Coinbase’s Q2 financial results showed a significant drop in transaction revenue (down 39% from the previous quarter) and overall trading activity, which led to revenues missing Wall Street expectations. This signaled to investors that activity on the platform was slowing sharply, a trend exacerbated by lower volatility in crypto markets.

• Unfavorable Subscription Guidance
  The company provided a less-than-enthusiastic outlook for its subscription revenue. This forecast, combined with weak trading performance, resulted in analysts revising price targets downward and, in some cases, lowering their stock ratings for COIN.

• Broader Market and Macroeconomic Sentiment
  Disappointing macroeconomic data and renewed trade tariff discussions in the U.S. weighed heavily on risk assets, including crypto-related equities like Coinbase. Worries about recessions and shifting trade policies have increased the perceived risk of holding high-beta stocks tied to digital assets.

• Comparative Underperformance in the Crypto Sector
  While Coinbase posted disappointing numbers, some competitors—such as Robinhood—reported growth in their crypto trading revenue, highlighting Coinbase’s unique challenges amid a sector-wide backdrop of changing risk tolerance.

• Shift in Market Behavior and Regulatory Uncertainty
  Crypto markets entered a phase of lower volatility and reduced trading, partially due to investors holding assets during a bullish crypto cycle and awaiting further clarity on U.S. regulations. Sector-wide anticipation of key data releases, possible Fed rate cuts, and major regulatory updates also contributed to market caution, limiting upside for trading-focused platforms like Coinbase.

In summary, COIN’s decline on August 21 was driven by disappointing earnings, a weak outlook, diminished market volatility, mounting macroeconomic pressures, and evolving sector dynamics—all of which combined to sour investor sentiment toward Coinbase stock.

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2. Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

• Trend Zone: Bearish

• Recommended Position: Sell and Observe

In the long-term view, COIN is still locked in a Bearish cycle. Historically, Bearish zones are marked by:

• Downtrend: Persistent declines with minor recoveries.

• Rebound Trend: Short-lived upward movements within a downward framework.

For long-term investors, remaining defensive is the most suitable stance:

• Continue holding cash or alternative positions until COIN transitions into a Bullish zone.

• The “Sell and Observe” strategy has been effective in preserving capital, avoiding further downside exposure.

• There is a 60% probability of entering the Bullish zone within 4 days, which could present the next significant buying opportunity.

Until then, maintaining caution remains the most prudent long-term approach.

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3. Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

• Current Position: Neutral

• Key Observation: Market is preparing to shift from a downtrend into a rebound trend.

Short-term strategy highlights:

• Buying Window: Aug 22–25, with a target entry price around $305.1.

• Selling Window: Aug 28–29, with a target exit price around $330.7.

• Trend Expectation (10 days): 70% upward movement vs. 30% downward movement.

Investors should:

• Stay conservative during short-term rebounds.

• Use upward surges as selling or hedging opportunities.

• Consider low-exposure purchases only when the rebound confirms stability.

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4. 10-Day Forecast & Trend Outlook and Insights

• Projected Price Range: $294.3 ~ $327.3

• Expected % Change: -2.0% ~ +9.0%

• Median Forecast Price: $310.8 (+3.5%)

Additional Forecast Insights:

• Turning Points: Likely trend shifts today and again around 7 days from now.

• Correlation with U.S. Market Index:

  • Moves in sync: 76% probability

  • Moves independently: 24% probability

• Trend Intensity:

  • Upward moves: Avg. +56% strength

  • Downward moves: Avg. -52% strength

• Average Closing Prices:

  • Rising days: +3.7% (high ~ +5.1%, low ~ -1.3%)

  • Falling days: -2.3% (high ~ +1.6%, low ~ -3.8%)

Overall, COIN is forecasted to lean upward in the next 10 days, but volatility tied to the broader U.S. stock market remains a critical factor.

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5. Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts

• For Long-Term Investors:
  Stay patient. Continue with a Sell and Observe stance until COIN confirms entry into a Bullish zone. Risk remains elevated, but a potential Bullish shift within days could create a strong buying setup.

• For Short-Term Traders:
  Neutral positioning is appropriate until confirmation of the rebound. Consider light buying between Aug 22–25 and aim for profit-taking between Aug 28–29 near $330.7.

Bottom Line:
COIN is nearing a potential rebound phase after weeks of heavy selling. However, until the Bullish zone is confirmed, both long- and short-term investors should remain cautious, prioritize capital preservation, and prepare to act quickly if the upward breakout solidifies.