TSLA Pretiming Report_Daily: Tesla remains in a Bearish zone but is showing early signs of a rebound pattern. While long-term investors should remain defensive, short-term traders can cautiously position for a potential upward move.

 

TSLA Pretiming Report_Daily

Date: August 21, 2025
Closing Price: $320.1 (-1.17%)

---

1. Today’s Market Flow

Tesla (TSLA) closed at $320.1, down -1.17% from the prior session, extending its short stay in a Bearish zone.

TSLA entered this Bearish phase only 3 days ago (Aug 18, 2025) and has since accumulated a modest -4.5% decline. Although the selling trend remains intact, signs of weakening downward momentum suggest the possibility of a near-term rebound trend forming.

Market sentiment remains cautious, but probabilities indicate potential upward stabilization within the next week.

*Key Factors Driving TSLA Today

• Disappointing Earnings and Outlook
  Tesla reported unsatisfactory second-quarter earnings, with both revenue and net income falling for the second straight quarter. Sales in major markets such as the United States and China were notably weak. CEO Elon Musk further warned that the company could face "a few rough quarters" ahead, citing internal and external challenges.

• Tax Incentive Removal and Regulatory Credits
  Investors are responding negatively to the upcoming expiration of U.S. electric vehicle tax incentives, which have historically supported Tesla's bottom line. Additionally, the market for regulatory credits is diminishing, further weakening Tesla’s outlook for generating supplemental revenue.

• Broader Macroeconomic and Market Concerns
  Widespread anxieties about the macroeconomic environment, including persistent inflation and uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy, have led to a general pullback in high-valuation and technology stocks. Weak economic data released during the week, especially on employment, intensified investor caution.

• Product and Demand Concerns
  Tesla's much-anticipated Cybertruck has underperformed, selling only 52,000 units compared to the original 1 million reservations. Such product weakness raised additional doubts about Tesla’s ability to grow and innovate at the rapid pace markets have priced in.

• Political and Brand Turbulence
  Tesla’s perceived close alignment with Elon Musk’s political activities and controversies, including leadership in government efforts and public disputes, has contributed to brand damage and further pressured the stock. The stock has also been impacted by recent policy changes and public disagreements between Musk and top U.S. government officials.

Overall, TSLA’s decline was driven by a toxic mix of worsening fundamentals, the loss of key incentives, weakening product demand, deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, and heightened regulatory and political uncertainty—all of which eroded investor confidence in Tesla’s short-term outlook.

---

2. Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

• Trend Zone: Bearish

• Recommended Position: Sell and Observe

From a long-term perspective, Tesla remains under selling pressure:

• Bearish zones typically bring extended downward moves with weak rebound attempts.

• The risk-reward ratio remains unfavorable, and staying defensive is advisable.

Currently, there is a 50% probability of shifting into a Bullish zone within 5 days. If this transition occurs, it would represent a major turning point for long-term investors, creating an opportunity to increase equity exposure.

Until then, the prudent approach is to hold cash, observe market conditions, and prepare to act if a confirmed Bullish breakout develops.

---

3. Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

• Current Position: Buy (Bullish) and Hold (light exposure)

• Short-Term Outlook: Preparing for a rebound

Key tactical insights:

• Buying Window: Aug 25–26, at an estimated entry price of $324.7

• Selling Window: Sep 3–4, with a target exit price of $347.0

• Pattern Expectation: Ascending rectangle formation, with 60% upward probability vs. 40% downward risk.

Short-term traders should:

• Use upcoming rebound strength as an opportunity to initiate limited buy positions.

• Hold through the potential upward swing but remain disciplined with profit-taking near projected highs.

• Treat upward surges as tactical opportunities rather than long-term commitments until a Bullish zone is fully confirmed.

---

4. 10-Day Forecast & Trend Outlook and Insights

• Projected Price Range: $310.5 ~ $345.6

• Expected % Change: -3.0% ~ +8.0%

• Median Forecast Price: $328.0 (+2.5%)

Additional Forecast Highlights:

• Turning Points: Likely reversals in ~1 day and again around 7 days.

• Correlation with U.S. Stock Market:

  • Moves in sync: 71% probability

  • Moves independently: 29% probability

• Trend Intensity:

  • Upward moves: Avg. +65% strength

  • Downward moves: Avg. -52% strength

• Average Daily Outcomes:

  • On rising days: +3.2% (range +4.4% ~ -1.3%)

  • On falling days: -2.2% (range +1.3% ~ -3.9%)

Overall, TSLA shows early signs of stabilization and is expected to trade with a slight upward bias in the next 10 days, though volatility tied to broader market direction remains a significant factor.

---

5. Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts

• For Long-Term Investors:
  Maintain Sell and Observe until Tesla clearly transitions into a Bullish zone. Avoid deep exposure during Bearish cycles, but prepare for re-entry as a potential Bullish breakout may emerge in the coming week.

• For Short-Term Traders:
  A tactical Buy-and-Hold approach may be effective with limited exposure. Consider buying between Aug 25–26 and targeting exits near Sep 3–4 around $347.0.

Bottom Line:
Tesla remains in a Bearish zone but is showing early signs of a rebound pattern. While long-term investors should remain defensive, short-term traders can cautiously position for a potential upward move, provided strict discipline in entry and exit timing is maintained.