JOBY Pretiming Report_Daily

Date: August 21, 2025
Closing Price: $14.50 (▼ -1.83%)

1. Today's Market Flow

JOBY closed at $14.50, down 1.83% from the previous session, extending its position within the Bearish zone. The stock has been under selling pressure for the past 11 days since first entering this zone on August 6, 2025 (previous selling price: $18.90).

During this period, JOBY has seen a cumulative decline of -23.7%, reflecting a strong bearish momentum. However, market signals now suggest that the downtrend is slowing, and early signs of a rebound phase may be developing as selling intensity begins to weaken.

*Key Factors Driving JOBY

JOBY’s Recent Decline: Core Causes

Q2 Financial Results Disappoint: Joby Aviation posted a substantial net loss of $0.41 per share in Q2 2025—over double last year’s loss. Revenue remains minimal despite high gross margins, intensifying worries about operational sustainability. This resulted in persistent selling pressure and a drop from $18.20 to $14.27 over recent days.
Analyst Downgrades and Skepticism: Leading brokers, including HC Wainwright and Canaccord, shifted ratings from "Buy" to "Neutral" or "Hold" while lowering price targets. These moves, coupled with Wall Street Zen and other analysts cutting ratings to “Sell”, fueled additional negative sentiment.
Board Reshuffles and Weak Guidance: Market participants reacted negatively to changes in board composition and revised downward guidance, which signaled ongoing uncertainty at the leadership level.
Technical Selling Pressure: Technical indicators such as MACD turning negative and momentum indicators falling below zero suggested continued downside, with volumes supporting the bearish trend. The stock broke key support levels, amplifying the downtrend.

2. Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

JOBY remains firmly in a Bearish zone, where the suitable long-term strategy is Sell and Observe.

Bearish zone dynamics:
- Downtrend phase: Characterized by sharp declines with occasional weak upward movements.
- Rebound phase: Consists of temporary price recoveries that remain unstable and short-lived.

Historically, investing in this zone delivers low expected returns and carries a high probability of further downside risk. For long-term investors, the priority should be capital preservation rather than accumulation.

Key Strategic Points:

Maintain the Sell and Observe stance until JOBY transitions back into a Bullish zone, which would provide a true buying point for renewed exposure.
Consider inverse stock positions or hedges as a defensive measure during the current downward cycle.
A probability of 54% exists for JOBY to re-enter a Bullish zone within the next 7 days, signaling that investors should prepare for potential allocation adjustments if momentum shifts upward.

3. Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

From a trading perspective, JOBY is transitioning from a Downtrend into a potential Rebound trend.

Short-term positioning: Neutral stance is recommended for now.
Buying window: Forecast suggests an attractive entry between Aug 22–25 around $15.00.
Selling window: Expected between Aug 29–Sep 02 near $18.00, offering a short-term profit opportunity.

Correlation with the broader market:

Moves in line with U.S. market indices 72% of the time.
Moves against the index 28% of the time, meaning JOBY retains some independence in price action.

Traders should remain cautious but agile—use upward movements as tactical selling opportunities and approach buying with limited exposure until confirmation of a Bullish shift.

*Factors Supporting a Potential Near-Term Rebound

Technical Reversal Signals: Despite recent declines, technical analyses suggest some buy signals could materialize. JOBY is highly volatile and currently testing support zones around $11.58 and $17.45. A bounce at these levels, especially coupled with rising trading volume and a positive divergence in moving averages, could prompt a short-term rebound.
Overextended Downside & Oversold Conditions: Bearish zone -210%, JOBY is extremely oversold, often preceding a tactical rebound. Probability patterns show that in past similar instances, the stock experienced upward corrections after three consecutive days of decline.
Liquidity Buffer: JOBY’s high cash reserves and strong current ratio provide financial flexibility. If investor sentiment stabilizes or positive news emerges (e.g., innovation milestones), oversold conditions may prompt renewed buying.
Broader Market Positives: On the broader market, moderation in tariff increases or unexpected positive news (such as strong earnings in other sectors) could help spark a relief rally in risk assets for the next week, as historic volatility often creates sharp recoveries following intense selling.

In summary, recent declines in JOBY and the broader U.S. stock market have been mainly driven by disappointing results, analyst downgrades, tariff-related shocks, and economic slowdowns. However, technical indicators hint at a possible short-term rebound next week, attributed to oversold conditions, support testing, and the company’s strong liquidity position.

4. 10-Day Forecast & Trend Outlook and Insights

Expected Direction: Upward bias with a 3:7 ratio favoring gains.

Price Range Forecast: $13.90 – $17.40
Potential Upside: +20.5%
Potential Downside: -4.0%
Median Forecast Price: $15.60 (+8.2% from current level)

Trend Probability:

Current trend zone: Bearish (-210%)
Next 10-day forecast: Bearish (-80%), suggesting weakening downward pressure.
Average upward intensity: +32%
Average downward intensity: -56%

Turning Points:

High probability of a trend reversal in 1 day and again in 8 days, implying heightened volatility ahead.

Volatility Outlook:
Due to a balanced buy-sell intensity, forecast volatility remains relatively low. Still, short-term rebounds may be sharp and fast, requiring timely execution.

5. Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts

For Long-Term Investors: Continue to Sell and Observe. The Bearish zone indicates risk outweighs reward at this stage. Preserve cash and monitor closely for a confirmed Bullish transition.
For Short-Term Traders: Adopt a neutral stance now, but prepare for tactical opportunities:
- Buy around $15.80 (Aug 26–27)
- Sell near $18.00 (Aug 29–Sep 02)
Market Sensitivity: JOBY shows a strong link to the U.S. stock index—future moves may track broader market sentiment.
Bottom Line: JOBY is nearing a potential rebound, but the trend is not yet strong enough to justify aggressive buying. Patience and disciplined execution remain key.

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Thursday, August 21, 2025