TSLA Pretiming Report_Weekly

Date: Weekly of Aug 18, 2025

📊 This Week’s Market Flow

Tesla (TSLA) closed the week at $340.0, marking a +2.86% gain. Over the past week, price action confirmed a continuation of the Bullish trend zone, with strong buying momentum outweighing brief corrective pullbacks.

Despite minor mid-week dips, buying pressure quickly absorbed selling activity, supporting a steady upward climb. The stock has now sustained its position in the Bullish zone for 16 consecutive weeks since Apr 28, 2025, delivering an 18.4% cumulative gain during this period.

Correlation remains high with the broader U.S. Stock Market Average Index (75%), indicating that Tesla’s near-term performance is likely to track overall market sentiment.

*Key Factors Driving TSLA This Week

1. Federal Reserve Policy Signals

Tesla’s stock rallied in response to dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium. His remarks hinted at a potential interest rate cut, sparking a broad market rally, especially among risk assets and major tech stocks.

2. Cybertruck Price Hike & EV Market Dynamics

On August 22, Tesla announced a significant price increase for its top-tier Cybertruck model in the US, raising it by $15,000. The new Cyberbeast version now features Supervised Full Self-Driving and upgraded perks but sales remain below expectations amid recurring recalls and steep discounts being offered on other variants. These developments fueled discussions about demand and margins within US financial media.

3. Autonomous & Energy Business Expansion

Optimism is building around Tesla’s autonomous driving initiatives, especially as CEO Elon Musk confirmed the Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, will launch publicly next month. Tesla’s ongoing efforts to secure regulatory approvals for autonomous operation in Arizona and its application to become a power supplier in the UK added to positive sentiment.

4. Technical Trading Levels & Volatility

Analysts highlighted key technical price levels all week. Resistance in the $350 range prompted short-term selling and speculation about possible declines toward the $307–$310 support if momentum faded. TSLA’s volatility remained elevated, with frequent moves exceeding 5% as traders reacted to both macro and company news.

5. General Market Trends

Tesla’s share price ended the week strong, closing at $340.01 on August 22, and rising further in after-hours trading. Overall, the company benefited from improved risk appetite across equity markets and ongoing interest in the EV and tech sectors.

In summary, TSLA was driven by macroeconomic policy signals, notable product price actions, ongoing innovation in autonomy and energy sectors, and sustained technical volatility.

📈 Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

Trend Zone: Bullish
Recommended Position: Buy and Hold

Tesla remains firmly in a Bullish trend zone. Within this zone, price movement typically alternates between Uptrend (strong upward flows with brief pullbacks) and Correction Trend (temporary declines with rebounds). Historically, this zone has offered high expected returns with lower downside risk compared to Bearish phases.

Long-term investors should maintain a Buy and Hold approach, focusing on holding positions rather than frequent trading. The upward potential is supported by ongoing buying strength and relatively mild correction phases.

However, risk management is essential:

There is a 51% probability of entering the Bearish zone within 10 weeks.
A defensive strategy—such as gradually reducing exposure and building cash reserves—may be prudent if signs of weakness or zone shifts emerge.

⚡ Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

For short-term traders, Tesla is currently in the midst of a strong uptrend with occasional brief declines. The recommended approach is to:

Buy aggressively at favorable entry points.
Sell gradually and partially on rallies, creating opportunities to re-enter at lower levels.

Key near-term strategy points:

Buy Window: Aug 25, 2025, at around $335.6
Sell Window: Sep 01–08, 2025, at around $393.3
Short-Term Position: Maintain Buy (Bullish) and Hold

Tesla’s short-term momentum is expected to continue, but traders should manage entries and exits carefully to capture profit while controlling risk.

🔮 10-Week Forecast & Trend Outlook and Insights

Expected Trend Shape: Sideways box pattern
Direction Bias: 6 (downward) : 4 (upward) → More frequent dips than rallies
Intensity Bias: Upward moves stronger than downward moves
Upper–Lower Price Range (10 Weeks): $339.0 – $383.8
Potential % Change: -0.3% ~ +12.9%
Median Expected Price: $361.4 (+6.3%)

Trend Reversal Risk:

Estimated around 4 weeks from now.
Probability of Bearish entry: 51% within 10 weeks.

Zone Intensity Analysis:

Past 30 weeks average: Bearish (-10%)
Current level: Bullish (+16%)
Next 10 weeks projected: Bullish (+30%)
Expected strength:
- Upward: 66% (max)
- Downward: -37% (moderate)

📅 Key Considerations for Daily Strategy Based on Weekly Trend

Buy dips rather than chase rallies → Next week’s intraday pullbacks may provide better entry points near $335–340.
Manage exit timing carefully → Short-term rallies above $390 should be viewed as opportunities for partial profit-taking.
Correlation with Market Index → Since Tesla tracks the U.S. Stock Market Index (75% correlation), traders must watch macro market direction closely.
Volatility Outlook → Prediction volatility is relatively low due to stable Buy-Sell intensity, reducing the risk of unexpected sharp swings.

📝 Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts

For Long-Term Investors: Maintain Buy and Hold in the Bullish zone. The trend supports continued gains, but monitor for Bearish entry signals within the next 10 weeks. Consider risk mitigation by gradually building cash if downside risks increase.
For Short-Term Traders: Use tactical entries near $335–340 and aim for profit-taking near $390+ in the coming weeks. Expect more frequent pullbacks than rallies, but rallies should be stronger in intensity.

Bottom Line: Tesla remains a strong performer in the Bullish zone. While the near-term forecast points to sideways consolidation, upward moves should remain the dominant force. Both long- and short-term investors can benefit by staying positioned on the bullish side, with disciplined risk controls in place.

[ SPR ] Stock Pretiming Report

Saturday, August 23, 2025