TQQQ Pretiming Report_Daily

Date: August 18, 2025
Closing Price: $93.1 (–0.13%)

1. Today’s Market Flow

ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) closed slightly lower at $93.1, posting a –0.13% decline. Despite the marginal pullback, the ETF remains firmly within the Bullish zone, reflecting strong underlying buying pressure. Market action suggested a consolidation phase, as TQQQ followed the broader U.S. Stock Market Average Index with a very high 93% correlation. This alignment underscores that today’s minor weakness was more a function of broad market sentiment than a fundamental shift in TQQQ’s own momentum.

*Key Factors Driving TQQQ and the U.S. Stock Market Today

1. Investor Caution Ahead of Jackson Hole and Fed Signals

The market treaded lightly as investors await insights from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming keynote at the Jackson Hole symposium. Expectations for Fed rate cuts are cooling after mixed inflation and employment data, heightening sensitivity to Powell’s remarks.
Market sentiment is currently shaped by hopes for a dovish angle, but even a modest tone (e.g., signaling only a 25 bps cut) could trigger a 7–15% correction in equities.

2. Modest Market Movement on Wall Street

On August 18, U.S. market indices largely reflected minimal movement. The S&P 500 edged lower by just 0.65 points, the Dow Jones dipped ~0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite inched up slightly.
Volume remained thin, signaling a typical summer lull with many investors on the sidelines.

3. Geopolitical Developments in Focus

Markets are keeping an eye on geopolitical developments, particularly President Trump’s meetings with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and European leaders—efforts aimed at easing tensions around the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
These engagements could affect energy and macroeconomic stability, especially if progress is made in peace talks.

4. Earnings, Retail Metrics, and Sector Highlights Provide Support

Several big-box retailers, including Walmart, Target, and Home Depot, are slated to report results this week — data points closely monitored for insights into consumer health amid tariffs and slowing hiring.
Specific sectors saw outperformance: solar stocks (e.g., Sunrun, First Solar) rallied sharply on favorable tax-credit policy developments. UnitedHealth also gained momentum following a notable investment by Berkshire Hathaway.

2. Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

The long-term trend continues to point toward Buy-and-Hold positioning, as TQQQ sustains its presence in the Bullish zone.

Bullish Uptrend: Strong upward movements with limited corrections.
Bullish Correction: Temporary declines that are typically followed by renewed upward momentum.

This environment historically supports high potential returns with relatively low downside risks.

Duration in Bullish Zone: 5 days (since Aug 11, 2025).
Cumulative Return: +2.0%.
Entry Price vs. Current Price: $91.4 → $93.1 (+$1.8 gain).

Risk Outlook: There is a 42% probability of entering the Bearish zone within 8 days, which would increase downside risks. Long-term investors should continue holding but be prepared to gradually shift to a defensive allocation if bearish signals strengthen.

3. Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

Short-term positioning also favors a Buy-and-Hold approach, as the correction phase appears to be transitioning into an uptrend.

Trading Bias: Aggressive buying at dips, gradual selling at peaks.
Buy-Sell Intensity: Currently suitable for supporting upward momentum.
Forecasted Pattern: An ascending rectangle, with a 6:4 ratio favoring downward movements in frequency, but with stronger upward intensity.

Predicted Trading Windows:

Buy Opportunity: Aug 19 at ~$93.1.
Sell Opportunity: Aug 20–21 at ~$100.3.

This suggests a short-term swing trading opportunity, with potential for ~7% upside in 3 days if momentum aligns with forecasts.

4. 10-Day Forecast & Trend Outlook and Insights

Projected Range: $88.5 – $100.0 (–5.0% to +7.4%).
Median Price Forecast: ~$94.3 (+1.2%).
Trend Intensity:
- Upward: +69% (strong momentum potential).
- Downward: –43% (moderate correction risk).
Trend Zone Forecast:
- Past 30-day average: Bullish 3%.
- Current: Bullish 22%.
- Next 10 days: Bullish 24% (steady strength expected).

Turning Points: A reversal is most probable today, again in ~3 days, and possibly in ~9 days.

Volatility Outlook: Given stable Buy-Sell intensity, forecast volatility is expected to remain low.

5. Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts

For Long-Term Investors: Continue holding, as the Bullish trend remains intact. However, monitor closely for signs of a transition toward Bearish conditions within the next 1–2 weeks.
For Short-Term Traders: Actively use predicted buy/sell windows to maximize gains. Selling near $100.3 in 3 days offers a strong profit-taking opportunity.
Market Sensitivity: With a 93% correlation to the U.S. stock market, broader index performance will heavily influence TQQQ’s near-term trajectory.

Final Word: TQQQ is positioned for potential near-term upside despite today’s small decline. Long-term investors benefit from continued holding, while short-term traders can tactically capture profit opportunities within a defined range.

[ SPR ] Stock Pretiming Report

Monday, August 18, 2025