TSLA Pretiming Report_Weekly: Tesla remains a strong performer in the Bullish zone. While the near-term forecast points to sideways consolidation, upward moves should remain the dominant force.

 

TSLA Pretiming Report_Weekly

Date: Weekly of Aug 18, 2025

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📊 This Week’s Market Flow

Tesla (TSLA) closed the week at $340.0, marking a +2.86% gain. Over the past week, price action confirmed a continuation of the Bullish trend zone, with strong buying momentum outweighing brief corrective pullbacks.

Despite minor mid-week dips, buying pressure quickly absorbed selling activity, supporting a steady upward climb. The stock has now sustained its position in the Bullish zone for 16 consecutive weeks since Apr 28, 2025, delivering an 18.4% cumulative gain during this period.

Correlation remains high with the broader U.S. Stock Market Average Index (75%), indicating that Tesla’s near-term performance is likely to track overall market sentiment.

*Key Factors Driving TSLA This Week

1. Federal Reserve Policy Signals

• Tesla’s stock rallied in response to dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium. His remarks hinted at a potential interest rate cut, sparking a broad market rally, especially among risk assets and major tech stocks.

2. Cybertruck Price Hike & EV Market Dynamics

• On August 22, Tesla announced a significant price increase for its top-tier Cybertruck model in the US, raising it by $15,000. The new Cyberbeast version now features Supervised Full Self-Driving and upgraded perks but sales remain below expectations amid recurring recalls and steep discounts being offered on other variants. These developments fueled discussions about demand and margins within US financial media.

3. Autonomous & Energy Business Expansion

• Optimism is building around Tesla’s autonomous driving initiatives, especially as CEO Elon Musk confirmed the Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, will launch publicly next month. Tesla’s ongoing efforts to secure regulatory approvals for autonomous operation in Arizona and its application to become a power supplier in the UK added to positive sentiment.

4. Technical Trading Levels & Volatility

• Analysts highlighted key technical price levels all week. Resistance in the $350 range prompted short-term selling and speculation about possible declines toward the $307–$310 support if momentum faded. TSLA’s volatility remained elevated, with frequent moves exceeding 5% as traders reacted to both macro and company news.

5. General Market Trends

• Tesla’s share price ended the week strong, closing at $340.01 on August 22, and rising further in after-hours trading. Overall, the company benefited from improved risk appetite across equity markets and ongoing interest in the EV and tech sectors.

In summary, TSLA was driven by macroeconomic policy signals, notable product price actions, ongoing innovation in autonomy and energy sectors, and sustained technical volatility.

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📈 Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

• Trend Zone: Bullish

• Recommended Position: Buy and Hold

Tesla remains firmly in a Bullish trend zone. Within this zone, price movement typically alternates between Uptrend (strong upward flows with brief pullbacks) and Correction Trend (temporary declines with rebounds). Historically, this zone has offered high expected returns with lower downside risk compared to Bearish phases.

Long-term investors should maintain a Buy and Hold approach, focusing on holding positions rather than frequent trading. The upward potential is supported by ongoing buying strength and relatively mild correction phases.

However, risk management is essential:

• There is a 51% probability of entering the Bearish zone within 10 weeks.

• A defensive strategy—such as gradually reducing exposure and building cash reserves—may be prudent if signs of weakness or zone shifts emerge.

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⚡ Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

For short-term traders, Tesla is currently in the midst of a strong uptrend with occasional brief declines. The recommended approach is to:

• Buy aggressively at favorable entry points.

• Sell gradually and partially on rallies, creating opportunities to re-enter at lower levels.

Key near-term strategy points:

• Buy Window: Aug 25, 2025, at around $335.6

• Sell Window: Sep 01–08, 2025, at around $393.3

• Short-Term Position: Maintain Buy (Bullish) and Hold

Tesla’s short-term momentum is expected to continue, but traders should manage entries and exits carefully to capture profit while controlling risk.

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🔮 10-Week Forecast & Trend Outlook and Insights

• Expected Trend Shape: Sideways box pattern

• Direction Bias: 6 (downward) : 4 (upward) → More frequent dips than rallies

• Intensity Bias: Upward moves stronger than downward moves

• Upper–Lower Price Range (10 Weeks): $339.0 – $383.8

• Potential % Change: -0.3% ~ +12.9%

• Median Expected Price: $361.4 (+6.3%)

Trend Reversal Risk:

• Estimated around 4 weeks from now.

• Probability of Bearish entry: 51% within 10 weeks.

Zone Intensity Analysis:

• Past 30 weeks average: Bearish (-10%)

• Current level: Bullish (+16%)

• Next 10 weeks projected: Bullish (+30%)

• Expected strength:

  • Upward: 66% (max)

  • Downward: -37% (moderate)

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📅 Key Considerations for Daily Strategy Based on Weekly Trend

• Buy dips rather than chase rallies → Next week’s intraday pullbacks may provide better entry points near $335–340.

• Manage exit timing carefully → Short-term rallies above $390 should be viewed as opportunities for partial profit-taking.

• Correlation with Market Index → Since Tesla tracks the U.S. Stock Market Index (75% correlation), traders must watch macro market direction closely.

• Volatility Outlook → Prediction volatility is relatively low due to stable Buy-Sell intensity, reducing the risk of unexpected sharp swings.

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📝 Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts

• For Long-Term Investors: Maintain Buy and Hold in the Bullish zone. The trend supports continued gains, but monitor for Bearish entry signals within the next 10 weeks. Consider risk mitigation by gradually building cash if downside risks increase.

• For Short-Term Traders: Use tactical entries near $335–340 and aim for profit-taking near $390+ in the coming weeks. Expect more frequent pullbacks than rallies, but rallies should be stronger in intensity.

Bottom Line: Tesla remains a strong performer in the Bullish zone. While the near-term forecast points to sideways consolidation, upward moves should remain the dominant force. Both long- and short-term investors can benefit by staying positioned on the bullish side, with disciplined risk controls in place.

JOBY Pretiming Report_Daily: JOBY is nearing a potential rebound, but the trend is not yet strong enough to justify aggressive buying. Patience and disciplined execution remain key.

 

JOBY Pretiming Report_Daily

Date: August 21, 2025
Closing Price: $14.50 (▼ -1.83%)

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1. Today's Market Flow

JOBY closed at $14.50, down 1.83% from the previous session, extending its position within the Bearish zone. The stock has been under selling pressure for the past 11 days since first entering this zone on August 6, 2025 (previous selling price: $18.90).

During this period, JOBY has seen a cumulative decline of -23.7%, reflecting a strong bearish momentum. However, market signals now suggest that the downtrend is slowing, and early signs of a rebound phase may be developing as selling intensity begins to weaken.

*Key Factors Driving JOBY

JOBY’s Recent Decline: Core Causes

• Q2 Financial Results Disappoint: Joby Aviation posted a substantial net loss of $0.41 per share in Q2 2025—over double last year’s loss. Revenue remains minimal despite high gross margins, intensifying worries about operational sustainability. This resulted in persistent selling pressure and a drop from $18.20 to $14.27 over recent days.

• Analyst Downgrades and Skepticism: Leading brokers, including HC Wainwright and Canaccord, shifted ratings from "Buy" to "Neutral" or "Hold" while lowering price targets. These moves, coupled with Wall Street Zen and other analysts cutting ratings to “Sell”, fueled additional negative sentiment.

• Board Reshuffles and Weak Guidance: Market participants reacted negatively to changes in board composition and revised downward guidance, which signaled ongoing uncertainty at the leadership level.

• Technical Selling Pressure: Technical indicators such as MACD turning negative and momentum indicators falling below zero suggested continued downside, with volumes supporting the bearish trend. The stock broke key support levels, amplifying the downtrend.

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2. Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

JOBY remains firmly in a Bearish zone, where the suitable long-term strategy is Sell and Observe.

• Bearish zone dynamics:

  • Downtrend phase: Characterized by sharp declines with occasional weak upward movements.

  • Rebound phase: Consists of temporary price recoveries that remain unstable and short-lived.

Historically, investing in this zone delivers low expected returns and carries a high probability of further downside risk. For long-term investors, the priority should be capital preservation rather than accumulation.

Key Strategic Points:

• Maintain the Sell and Observe stance until JOBY transitions back into a Bullish zone, which would provide a true buying point for renewed exposure.

• Consider inverse stock positions or hedges as a defensive measure during the current downward cycle.

• A probability of 54% exists for JOBY to re-enter a Bullish zone within the next 7 days, signaling that investors should prepare for potential allocation adjustments if momentum shifts upward.

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3. Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

From a trading perspective, JOBY is transitioning from a Downtrend into a potential Rebound trend.

• Short-term positioning: Neutral stance is recommended for now.

• Buying window: Forecast suggests an attractive entry between Aug 22–25 around $15.00.

• Selling window: Expected between Aug 29–Sep 02 near $18.00, offering a short-term profit opportunity.

Correlation with the broader market:

• Moves in line with U.S. market indices 72% of the time.

• Moves against the index 28% of the time, meaning JOBY retains some independence in price action.

Traders should remain cautious but agile—use upward movements as tactical selling opportunities and approach buying with limited exposure until confirmation of a Bullish shift.

*Factors Supporting a Potential Near-Term Rebound

• Technical Reversal Signals: Despite recent declines, technical analyses suggest some buy signals could materialize. JOBY is highly volatile and currently testing support zones around $11.58 and $17.45. A bounce at these levels, especially coupled with rising trading volume and a positive divergence in moving averages, could prompt a short-term rebound.

• Overextended Downside & Oversold Conditions: Bearish zone -210%, JOBY is extremely oversold, often preceding a tactical rebound. Probability patterns show that in past similar instances, the stock experienced upward corrections after three consecutive days of decline.

• Liquidity Buffer: JOBY’s high cash reserves and strong current ratio provide financial flexibility. If investor sentiment stabilizes or positive news emerges (e.g., innovation milestones), oversold conditions may prompt renewed buying.

• Broader Market Positives: On the broader market, moderation in tariff increases or unexpected positive news (such as strong earnings in other sectors) could help spark a relief rally in risk assets for the next week, as historic volatility often creates sharp recoveries following intense selling.

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In summary, recent declines in JOBY and the broader U.S. stock market have been mainly driven by disappointing results, analyst downgrades, tariff-related shocks, and economic slowdowns. However, technical indicators hint at a possible short-term rebound next week, attributed to oversold conditions, support testing, and the company’s strong liquidity position.

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4. 10-Day Forecast & Trend Outlook and Insights

Expected Direction: Upward bias with a 3:7 ratio favoring gains.

• Price Range Forecast: $13.90 – $17.40

• Potential Upside: +20.5%

• Potential Downside: -4.0%

• Median Forecast Price: $15.60 (+8.2% from current level)

Trend Probability:

• Current trend zone: Bearish (-210%)

• Next 10-day forecast: Bearish (-80%), suggesting weakening downward pressure.

• Average upward intensity: +32%

• Average downward intensity: -56%

Turning Points:

• High probability of a trend reversal in 1 day and again in 8 days, implying heightened volatility ahead.

Volatility Outlook:
Due to a balanced buy-sell intensity, forecast volatility remains relatively low. Still, short-term rebounds may be sharp and fast, requiring timely execution.

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5. Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts

• For Long-Term Investors: Continue to Sell and Observe. The Bearish zone indicates risk outweighs reward at this stage. Preserve cash and monitor closely for a confirmed Bullish transition.

• For Short-Term Traders: Adopt a neutral stance now, but prepare for tactical opportunities:

  • Buy around $15.80 (Aug 26–27)

  • Sell near $18.00 (Aug 29–Sep 02)

• Market Sensitivity: JOBY shows a strong link to the U.S. stock index—future moves may track broader market sentiment.

• Bottom Line: JOBY is nearing a potential rebound, but the trend is not yet strong enough to justify aggressive buying. Patience and disciplined execution remain key.

TSLA Pretiming Report_Daily: Tesla remains in a Bearish zone but is showing early signs of a rebound pattern. While long-term investors should remain defensive, short-term traders can cautiously position for a potential upward move.

 

TSLA Pretiming Report_Daily

Date: August 21, 2025
Closing Price: $320.1 (-1.17%)

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1. Today’s Market Flow

Tesla (TSLA) closed at $320.1, down -1.17% from the prior session, extending its short stay in a Bearish zone.

TSLA entered this Bearish phase only 3 days ago (Aug 18, 2025) and has since accumulated a modest -4.5% decline. Although the selling trend remains intact, signs of weakening downward momentum suggest the possibility of a near-term rebound trend forming.

Market sentiment remains cautious, but probabilities indicate potential upward stabilization within the next week.

*Key Factors Driving TSLA Today

• Disappointing Earnings and Outlook
  Tesla reported unsatisfactory second-quarter earnings, with both revenue and net income falling for the second straight quarter. Sales in major markets such as the United States and China were notably weak. CEO Elon Musk further warned that the company could face "a few rough quarters" ahead, citing internal and external challenges.

• Tax Incentive Removal and Regulatory Credits
  Investors are responding negatively to the upcoming expiration of U.S. electric vehicle tax incentives, which have historically supported Tesla's bottom line. Additionally, the market for regulatory credits is diminishing, further weakening Tesla’s outlook for generating supplemental revenue.

• Broader Macroeconomic and Market Concerns
  Widespread anxieties about the macroeconomic environment, including persistent inflation and uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy, have led to a general pullback in high-valuation and technology stocks. Weak economic data released during the week, especially on employment, intensified investor caution.

• Product and Demand Concerns
  Tesla's much-anticipated Cybertruck has underperformed, selling only 52,000 units compared to the original 1 million reservations. Such product weakness raised additional doubts about Tesla’s ability to grow and innovate at the rapid pace markets have priced in.

• Political and Brand Turbulence
  Tesla’s perceived close alignment with Elon Musk’s political activities and controversies, including leadership in government efforts and public disputes, has contributed to brand damage and further pressured the stock. The stock has also been impacted by recent policy changes and public disagreements between Musk and top U.S. government officials.

Overall, TSLA’s decline was driven by a toxic mix of worsening fundamentals, the loss of key incentives, weakening product demand, deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, and heightened regulatory and political uncertainty—all of which eroded investor confidence in Tesla’s short-term outlook.

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2. Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

• Trend Zone: Bearish

• Recommended Position: Sell and Observe

From a long-term perspective, Tesla remains under selling pressure:

• Bearish zones typically bring extended downward moves with weak rebound attempts.

• The risk-reward ratio remains unfavorable, and staying defensive is advisable.

Currently, there is a 50% probability of shifting into a Bullish zone within 5 days. If this transition occurs, it would represent a major turning point for long-term investors, creating an opportunity to increase equity exposure.

Until then, the prudent approach is to hold cash, observe market conditions, and prepare to act if a confirmed Bullish breakout develops.

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3. Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

• Current Position: Buy (Bullish) and Hold (light exposure)

• Short-Term Outlook: Preparing for a rebound

Key tactical insights:

• Buying Window: Aug 25–26, at an estimated entry price of $324.7

• Selling Window: Sep 3–4, with a target exit price of $347.0

• Pattern Expectation: Ascending rectangle formation, with 60% upward probability vs. 40% downward risk.

Short-term traders should:

• Use upcoming rebound strength as an opportunity to initiate limited buy positions.

• Hold through the potential upward swing but remain disciplined with profit-taking near projected highs.

• Treat upward surges as tactical opportunities rather than long-term commitments until a Bullish zone is fully confirmed.

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4. 10-Day Forecast & Trend Outlook and Insights

• Projected Price Range: $310.5 ~ $345.6

• Expected % Change: -3.0% ~ +8.0%

• Median Forecast Price: $328.0 (+2.5%)

Additional Forecast Highlights:

• Turning Points: Likely reversals in ~1 day and again around 7 days.

• Correlation with U.S. Stock Market:

  • Moves in sync: 71% probability

  • Moves independently: 29% probability

• Trend Intensity:

  • Upward moves: Avg. +65% strength

  • Downward moves: Avg. -52% strength

• Average Daily Outcomes:

  • On rising days: +3.2% (range +4.4% ~ -1.3%)

  • On falling days: -2.2% (range +1.3% ~ -3.9%)

Overall, TSLA shows early signs of stabilization and is expected to trade with a slight upward bias in the next 10 days, though volatility tied to broader market direction remains a significant factor.

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5. Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts

• For Long-Term Investors:
  Maintain Sell and Observe until Tesla clearly transitions into a Bullish zone. Avoid deep exposure during Bearish cycles, but prepare for re-entry as a potential Bullish breakout may emerge in the coming week.

• For Short-Term Traders:
  A tactical Buy-and-Hold approach may be effective with limited exposure. Consider buying between Aug 25–26 and targeting exits near Sep 3–4 around $347.0.

Bottom Line:
Tesla remains in a Bearish zone but is showing early signs of a rebound pattern. While long-term investors should remain defensive, short-term traders can cautiously position for a potential upward move, provided strict discipline in entry and exit timing is maintained.